(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi - Hizbullah's military capabilities have been significantly degraded. According to IDF data, more than 70% of its firepower has been neutralized, along with a similar proportion of its infrastructure across Lebanon. This includes 80% of the weapons of its Radwan Force and much of its tunnel network in southern Lebanon. About 4,500 military operatives have been killed - including 1/3 from the Radwan Force - and another 9,000 wounded, together accounting for nearly half of Hizbullah's regular military force. In addition, Hizbullah has also suffered damage to its financial system, including the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association branches, making it difficult to support the recovery of the Shiite population and maintain their support. However, its military and civilian operatives rank in the tens of thousands, and it continues to enjoy support from the majority of Lebanon's Shiite population. Hizbullah faces near-daily Israeli military activity following the ceasefire declared on Nov. 27, 2024, stemming from the freedom of action granted to Israel under the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, as well as a side letter from the United States. These provisions allow Israel to respond to violations not addressed by the Lebanese army and to immediate threats posed by Hizbullah. As a result, the IDF is severely disrupting Hizbullah's efforts to maintain its presence in southern Lebanon and is steadily eroding its remaining capabilities. The Shiite axis has been significantly weakened and is showing signs of disintegration, primarily due to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the efforts of the new leadership in Damascus to expel both Iran and Hizbullah from the country. While Hizbullah's ideology and hostility toward Israel remain unchanged, its weakened state - and its desire to avoid renewed conflict in order to focus on recovery - presents Israel with a strategic opportunity to reshape the security environment along its northern border. However, Lebanon's limitations in addressing Hizbullah must be acknowledged. A clear gap exists between the ambitious demands of the U.S. and Israel, and what Lebanon's leadership can realistically deliver. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served for 26 years in the IDF and 12 years at the National Security Council in the Prime Minister's Office.
2025-05-11 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive