The Collapse of the Islamic State: What Comes Next?

(Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center) In 2014, at the height of its expansion, the Islamic State's territory covered a third of Iraq and Syria. ISIS' expansion was halted in 2015 and a continuous campaign waged against the Islamic State by an American-led international coalition, Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed forces, and the Syrian and Iraqi armies is about to be completed. ISIS will continue to exist after the collapse of the Islamic State but will change its character and modus operandi to revert to what it was before, a terrorist-guerrilla organization unconnected to a territorial base. At the same time, the concept of jihad against the "infidels" wherever they are found still exists and will lead to the continued existence of most (if not all) of ISIS' provinces beyond Syria and Iraq. Only a small number of attacks carried out by ISIS abroad were planned by ISIS headquarters in Syria. Most of the attacks in the West were ISIS-inspired, carried out by individuals who identified ideologically with ISIS. Thus, ISIS-inspired attacks will not come to an end and in the short term may increase to avenge the collapse of the Islamic State.

2017-11-17 00:00:00

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