Why Assad Can't Win

(NOW Lebanon) Joshua Cohen - With the help of his ally Hizbullah, Syria's Assad has won a series of victories, including recapturing parts of Aleppo and surrounding areas as well as pushing the rebels back from Damascus. Assad has largely succeeded in recapturing the Qalamoun region in southwest Syria, and the regime is also in the final stages of gaining control over the critical city of Homs. Once Assad achieves this goal, the regime will have a clear link between Damascus and Homs, which ensures that the regime's Alawite heartland will be reconnected to Damascus. Despite Assad's recent success, however, it is still highly unlikely the regime will be able to regain control over the entire country. The rebels still hold huge chunks of Syria, especially in northern and northeastern Syria. The Kurdish regions have disappeared from Assad's grasp. It is probably safe to say that a solid half of Syria remains out of the regime's hands. The Assad regime simply does not have the troop strength to reclaim the majority of lost territories, and likely never will. Moreover, Syria's oil and gas resources are now largely in rebel hands.

2014-05-02 00:00:00

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