The Iranian Strategy

(Israel Defense) Amir Rapaport - Iran built up Hizbullah's strength after 2006 as a tremendous threat to Israel, which it would operate only in the event of an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iranian soil. Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah was harshly reprimanded for his adventure in the summer of 2006, with the abduction of two Israeli soldiers that led to war. Since then, Nasrallah cannot initiate any sort of military measure against Israel without the explicit approval of the bosses from Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran is currently accelerating its nuclear program. The centrifuges are working at top speed to enrich uranium. No one in the West would be surprised if next spring, just as the U.S. tries consolidating a coalition to intensify economic sanctions, Iran would unilaterally announce that it is halting the enrichment process. If this happens, it would not constitute a surrender on Iran's part, but rather progression according to a pre-prepared plan. By the spring of 2013, Iran will already possess more than 200 kg. of 20%-enriched uranium, which could be suitable for use in a nuclear bomb. Iran will be able to complete the rest of the planned enrichment process at its own rate, in secret, far from the eyes of the UN inspectors. At the same time, it will be able to conclude the development of a detonator for the nuclear bomb, as well as the adaptation of the future bomb to a launch capability. From this point onwards, Iran will be able to choose the time at which it will announce the nuclear weapon in its possession.

2012-12-25 00:00:00

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