Changing Iran's Mind on Pursuing a Nuclear Bomb

(Jerusalem Post) Herb Keinon - Although a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, at this time a military attack on its nuclear facilities is viewed by analysts as counterproductive and would exact an enormous diplomatic, economic and military price. Iran's leadership, analysts say, would use an Israeli attack to unify the country around the government. The Iranians - who are largely responsible for building up Hizbullah to such an extent that today it has more firepower than 90% of the countries of the world - would "call in their chips," and Hizbullah would launch massive rocket attacks against Israel's home front. What is left is to change the Iranian government's mind about the wisdom of pursuing a nuclear bomb, or to buy more time that may create other opportunities down the line. Tools that can be used to achieve these goals, analysts say and WikiLeaks cables indicate, include: International pressure on Iran to convince it - through sanctions - that the price it is paying to gain nuclear capability is too high. Keeping the Iranians from getting the parts to produce the bomb. Economic warfare - ensuring that banks don't do business with the country. Fanning the ethnic chasms inside Iran, a country made up of 50% ethnic Persians, 25% Azeris, 7% Kurds and a smattering of Arabs, Turkmen, Balochi and other ethnic groups. Covert actions to set back the nuclear project.

2011-01-07 08:14:18

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