The Exchange of Fire on Israel's Northern Border

(Institute for National Security Studies) Shlomo Brom - The August 3, 2010, exchange of fire between the Lebanese army and the IDF ostensibly demonstrates the fragility of the ceasefire on the Lebanon border, in effect since the end of the Second Lebanon War in August 2006. Examining the incident more carefully, however, confirms the stability of the ceasefire, based on mutual deterrence between Israel and Hizbullah. The most interesting reaction was that of Hizbullah, which did not take part in the incident. Apparently, Hizbullah has no interest in a confrontation, at least at this time. Hizbullah, which was accused of dragging Lebanon into a war in 2006 that caused the country extensive damage, in order to serve outside interests, is unwilling to pay the military or political price of a second round. Also important here is UNIFIL's role. If one of the two sides is interested in harming the other, it is not within UNIFIL's power to prevent it.

2010-08-10 08:01:04

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