(RAND Corporation) A combination of key personalities, networks, and institutions defines the complex political system of the Islamic Republic. Factional competition and informal, back-channel maneuvering trump the formal processes for policymaking. The Supreme Leader retains the most power, but he is not omnipotent. The evolving role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the vulnerability of the elite "old guard" to challenge, and the succession of the next Supreme Leader are key determinants of Iran's future direction. In light of complexities in the Iranian system, U.S. policymakers must take as an article of faith that dealing with Iran does not necessarily mean dealing with a unitary actor due to the competing power centers.
2010-01-08 08:36:35Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive