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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/strategic-catch/
Iran's Strategic Nuclear Dilemma
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Sima Shine - Two central pillars of Iran's security perception have been undermined since its war with Israel. First, its nuclear program has suffered a severe blow, and second, the "resistance camp" of its regional proxies has been weakened to the point that, for now, it cannot stand by Iran's side. Tehran must now formulate its nuclear policy under intense time pressure - caught between President Trump's ultimatum and the threat from the European countries (the E3) to renew UN Security Council sanctions by activating the "snap-back" clause. Both deadlines converge at the end of this month. Failing to reach an agreement with the U.S. would lead to renewed and potentially heightened sanctions while also leaving open the risk of another attack. In this strategic deadlock, Iran has no good options. Israel prefers no agreement, partly out of concerns that any new deal would be worse than the previous one. The writer, director of the Iran and Shi'ite Axis program at INSS, served as Head of the Research & Evaluation Division of the Mossad.