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Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/intifada-hasnt-arrived
The Intifada that Hasn't Arrived
(Foreign Affairs) Daniel Byman - Since Hamas's surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed 1,200 Israelis, the Israeli military has assailed and occupied much of Gaza, ramped up operations in the West Bank, struck Houthi targets in Yemen, devastated Hizbullah in Lebanon, hit nuclear and military sites in Iran, and bombed parts of Syria. All these adversaries have links to terrorism. Through its proxies and on its own, Iran has attacked Israeli and Jewish targets around the world. In these circumstances, Israel appears to be courting a new wave of terrorist attacks, maybe even a wider uprising. Yet the number of terrorist attacks within Israel since Oct. 7 has been surprisingly low. A third intifada, in which Palestinians would rise up against Israel as they did between 1987 and 1993 and between 2000 and 2005 remains a distant prospect. That is in large part attributable to the success of Israel's campaigns against its enemies, the disarray of its foes, and its stiffened internal defenses. Israel has devastated the leadership of Hamas, Hizbullah, and now Iran. As Israeli campaigns against Hamas in the past have demonstrated, killing terrorist group leaders, especially at a rapid pace, can undermine the overall effectiveness and capacity of these outfits, making it difficult to stage operations. Guarding against Israeli strikes also creates its own logistical problems. Leaders must avoid phones, email, and other forms of communication for fear of having their locations revealed. They must trust few people and meet with fewer. In short, they cannot perform the functions of leadership if they want to stay alive. Fatigue and disillusionment may be setting in among the Palestinians. Polling in May indicated that 75% of West Bank Palestinians fear the war will spread into the West Bank, leading to the kind of destruction seen in Gaza. Although half of Palestinians across Gaza and the West Bank still support Hamas's decision to attack on Oct. 7, this support has fallen from 72% in December 2023. The devastation of Gaza is causing many to think twice about the costs of violence. The writer is a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.