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Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-859173
Why Iran Is Now a Couple of Years from a Bomb
(Jerusalem Post) Yonah Jeremy Bob - Based on professional evaluations, top IDF sources are adamant that Iran's nuclear program has been pushed back by at least a couple of years, maybe longer. The IDF knows for certain that it has completely destroyed thousands of Iranian nuclear centrifuges as well as almost all of Iran's sites for constructing centrifuges. In light of the Mossad penetrating Iran with literally hundreds of agents, it is unlikely that the Iranians succeeded in moving a large amount of 60%-enriched uranium from any facility with Israel completely missing this. But IDF officials will not dismiss the possibility that, somewhere, Iran managed to hide some small amount of uranium from Israel during the war. And there are probably some centrifuges somewhere that were not completely broken. Iran will need several months or longer to dig out what was not destroyed and several more months or longer to build new facilities. Only then can it try to restart uranium enrichment or get existing uranium to higher, weaponized levels. At that point, Tehran will hit another wall. While Iran had been advancing in making enriched uranium into a nuclear warhead, nearly all of Iran's weaponization activities were bombed. This means it would need to redo nearly all of those weaponization activities, which on its own could take a couple of years. IDF officials have high confidence that the sheer number of areas in which they destroyed or substantially harmed Iran's nuclear program makes it nearly impossible for the Islamic Republic to carry out all of the activities needed for producing a nuclear weapon in less than a couple of years. They also believe the destruction of so many nuclear processes may set back Iran even longer.