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A Return to Maximum Pressure: Comprehensively Countering the Iranian Regime's Malign Activities
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Dana Stroul - In order to counter Iran's destabilizing activities, the window is open for the U.S. to work with like-minded partners to advance opportunities in a region no longer held back by Iran's nefarious influence. To press the advantage, Washington must be prepared to bring more to the table than pressure. Military force and sanctions are critical elements of strategy but insufficient on their own. The U.S. must lean into diplomacy as well, testing the possibility of a negotiated settlement that can prevent Iran's nuclear program from delivering weapons while also supporting new leaders across the region that oppose Tehran's interest in rebuilding its "axis of resistance." Regional developments since Oct. 7, 2023, have significantly reshaped the regional threat landscape. In the aftermath of Hamas's attack, Israel, with U.S. support, has systematically dismantled Iran's proxy network in Gaza, Lebanon, and elsewhere. In Syria, Tehran lost its one Middle East strategic partner with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. The combination of Israel's offensive strikes inside Iran and U.S.-led defensive action in the region has lowered the fear barrier in confronting Iranian aggression. Allies have demonstrated that Iran's complex conventional attacks and missile threats can be effectively countered. Tehran's military infrastructure is now exposed to future military action. In addition, the Iranian regime is under pressure at home due to years of mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions. Recent economic indicators reveal significant damage that limits the regime's ability to fund both domestic priorities and malign foreign activities. Yet sanctions alone cannot stop Iran's nuclear program. Today, Iran is perilously close to crossing the nuclear weapons threshold. Iran could have sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a weapon in just days and could produce a usable weapon in six months or less. The intelligence community has long assessed that Tehran's decision-making is the only thing precluding a breakout, not any technical inhibition. The writer, Director of Research and Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is a former deputy assistant secretary for the Middle East at the Pentagon. This is from remarks submitted to the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs.