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Source: http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2718
Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader
[Washington Institute for Near East Policy] Mehdi Khalaji - As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, President Ahmadinejad is expected to lose ground, while the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as decisionmaker will be reinforced. The Interior Ministry and the Guardian Council have disqualified more than two thousand mostly reformist candidates, so that reformists can only compete for around 30 of the 290 seats in the Majlis (parliament). Yet the reformists lack the social power base required to take advantage of electoral opportunities in the first place. The reformist candidates failed in the most recent presidential and municipal elections because the Iranian people have lost faith in their ability to change the system and make real reforms. The basic difference between Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic, and Supreme Leader Khamenei is charisma: while the founder could achieve his goals by using his charisma to engender massive public support, his successor can only establish his authority through military and intelligence institutions.