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Source: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4595870,00.html
Iran Is Still on the Verge of a Bomb
(Ynet News) Ron Ben-Yishai - The temporary interim agreement reached in Geneva a year ago is the maximum compromise the world powers are able to achieve with Iran. The attempt to reach a permanent agreement which would completely remove the risk of Iran becoming militarily nuclearized, in exchange for a removal of the sanctions, failed because Iran is unprepared to give up its status as a nuclear threshold state and is prepared to pay a heavy economic price for that. Iran can enrich uranium to a high level (90%) for one nuclear bomb within three to six months, but it will take at least another year and a half to develop an explosive device and nuclear warhead for a missile, leaving Iran in the status of a threshold state which is about 18 months away from a first bomb. The Americans failed to convince the Iranians to limit the number of centrifuges, to prevent the installment of centrifuges of newer models and to limit the amount of enriched uranium to a low level. They did not get the Iranians to agree to invasive supervision, which would allow unexpected inspections. Israel is satisfied with the extension of talks mainly because it thwarts a "bad agreement." The shortcoming of the current situation is that Iran can secretly develop a nuclear weapon, even during the talks. The Iranians specialize in deceptive activity of this kind.