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Striking Syria: Lessons from the Israeli Experience
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Herzog - Since Bashar Assad assumed power in 2000, Israel has carried out several surgical airstrikes in Syria. To be effective, even a limited strike must destroy some of Assad's significant assets, and Syria has plenty of chemical, military, command-and-control, and regime targets of this nature. In Israel's experience, Assad has proven to be a rational (if ruthless) actor. He was deterred from responding to recent and past strikes because he did not want to invite the consequences of Israeli military might. Therefore, the U.S. has a good chance of deterring him as well. To do so, however, Washington should be prepared to revisit Syria militarily if Assad escalates following an initial U.S. strike. Assad must believe that he will pay a more painful price if he does not heed deterrent messages. Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog, formerly head of IDF strategic planning, is a fellow of the Washington Institute.