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Source: http://jrep.com/Columnists/Article-2.html
Iraq First
(Jerusalem Report) Ehud Ya'ari - So long as Abu Mazen and his like avoid engaging Arafat or Hamas in a real test of strength, and make do with grumbling, threats, and position papers, there won't be any serious change in the situation and all the attempts at de-escalation will be overtaken by the war in Iraq (or whatever last minute formula is found to replace it). Arafat thinks that another Gulf War will lead to an international conference a la Madrid. He is hoping to hold on until then. His rivals in the Fatah leadership, however, argue that that is a dangerous gamble, and that Sharon will exploit the coming period to hasten the implosion of the Palestinian Authority.