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Source: http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/critical-capability/
Iran to Achieve Critical Nuclear Capability in Mid-2014
(Institute for Science and International Security) David Albright and Christina Walrond - Iran is expected to achieve a critical capability in mid-2014, which is defined as the technical capability to produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium from its safeguarded stocks of low-enriched uranium for a nuclear explosive, without being detected. Iran's capability could be achieved a few months earlier if it successfully deploys and operates several thousand IR-2m centrifuges and continues installing thousands of IR-1 centrifuges.