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Pondering Life after Arafat
(Jerusalem Post) Matthew Gutman - Palestinian and Israeli officials observe that, with Arafat apparently on the way out, Israel will have to deal with a more chaotic PA in the short run. When Arafat dies "the PLO will die with him," says PLO expert Dr. Shmuel Bar of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center of Herzliya. "Then we can take our pick of Balkanization, Lebanonization, or Afghanistanization." Arafat deliberately built the Palestinian political infrastructure to be weak. With no leaders in Fatah to pass the scepter to, "we will witness increasing chaos, and a disintegration of the authority known as the PA." Local leaders, whose power will be measured solely by the number of AK-47s in their grasp, will rule individual Palestinian cities, breeding a new type of tribalism. Yet members of the Fatah's Young Guard - who will shed few tears at Arafat's eventual death - painted the rosiest view of a post-Arafat PA. The Young Guard believes it can harness the popularity of West Bank and Gaza-born Fatah members, those unstained by corruption, to win broad support. Members of the Old Guard, Arafat confidants and cronies who enjoy little or no grassroots support, fear the loss of the unifying power of the Arafat symbol, and, of course, the perks. Without Arafat anchoring the more veteran Fatah members shipped to the territories from Tunis, their power and influence will bottom out.