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Source: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/pushing-back-the-red-line-on-syria.premium-1.518074
Pushing Back the Red Line on Syrian Chemical Weapons
(Ha'aretz) Zvi Bar'el - Israel and the U.S. agree that Syrian President Assad has used sarin chemical weapons at least twice. While it is clear the ban on the use of chemical weapons has already been violated, the weapons stockpiles are still in the hands of the regime. This is the reason for Western wariness of a military attack. In light of the threat of an external attack, estimates are that as long as the rebels do not gain a decisive advantage in the civil war, Assad will make no further use of chemical weapons. At the same time, an immediate attack on the chemical weapons stockpiles could well create an even more dangerous situation, freeing Assad of any constraints on using his chemical weapons. Another possibility is that bombing the bases where the chemical weapons are produced or the munitions are installed on the warheads of Scud missiles would spread toxic gases that will harm civilians and even cross Syria's borders. Furthermore, an aerial bombardment of the chemical weapons stores would scatter the Syrian battalions guarding them and allow the rebel militias, one of which is an al-Qaeda affiliate, to take control of the remaining chemical weapons left unguarded. It is also assumed that Israeli and American intelligence agencies know exactly where the chemical weapons stockpiles are located. But this assumption is not necessarily realistic. About a year ago, the Syrian army moved some of these chemical weapons stores, and there is no certainty that the intelligence agencies in the West and Israel know where they are stored now.