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Source: http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/docs/perspectives174.pdf
Invisible Red Line: The Futility of Trying to Detect an Iranian Order to Build the Bomb
(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Dany Shoham and Raphael Ofek - At what point will Iran's drive for nuclear weapons necessitate Western military action against it? It is practically impossible and very unlikely that Western intelligence could detect an unambiguous order from Iranian leadership to build a nuclear bomb, making this an unwise "red line" marker. Instead, the threshold at which no practical surgical operation can deprive Iran of its nuclear capability is a much more relevant "red line" on Iran's path to nuclearization. Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham is a former senior intelligence analyst and a senior research associate at the BESA Center. Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, an expert in nuclear physics, also served as a senior intelligence analyst in the IDF.