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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/weekinreview/06slack.html
Fearing an Iraq in a Post-Assad Syria
(New York Times) Michael Slackman - Assad has been presented with a lose-lose proposition. He can try to hand over relatives to UN investigators. But if he cuts a deal with the West, Assad risks being viewed as a puppet. If he refuses, Syria could be hit with economic sanctions. Either way his grip on power could be weakened. "Either Bashar will have to make his coup, or someone will make it against him," said a Syrian political analyst with close ties to the leadership. Steven A. Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the State Department realizes "if we think that we have problems in Iraq we will have more problems, more violence, if Assad comes crashing down." "What I do see is a possibility that someone or some group within the ruling clique will see this situation as untenable and decide that whoever is responsible needs to go," he said.