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Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=51536
Riots in Syria
(Middle Eastern Insights/Bar-Ilan University) Mordechai Kedar - Assad is in a trap. If he allows protests to continue, they will intensify; if he acts firmly against them, his fate is liable to mirror Gaddafi's. Ever since France created Syria as an artificial state lacking public legitimacy, the country has been divided along various lines - religious (Muslims, Christians, Druze, Alawis), ethnic (Arabs, Kurds, Armenians), denominational (Sunnis, Shi'ites, Christian sects) and tribal. The state is perceived by most of its citizens as a mechanism of oppression designed to allow rule by a cruel and corrupt group, one that mobilizes the support of family heads by distributing economic monopolies that create "fat cats" who gobble up public money, reducing the state's ability to invest in infrastructure. To remain in power, the controlling group employs eleven internal security organizations, which also monitor each other. Assad will fight with determination and without sentiment to maintain power because, if he loses, he and his fellow Alawis are liable to be subject to mass slaughter by the Muslim majority.