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Source: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1927123,00.html
Why We Know So Little About Iran's Nuclear Program
[TIME] Robert Baer - We know as much about it as we did about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. Iran could test a nuke next week, or not for another 20 years. Iran, like Iraq, is one of the world's worst countries in which to establish facts. It's a vicious police state dedicated to stopping its national-security secrets from leaking. The quickest way to be arrested or escorted out of that country is to ask questions about its bomb. IAEA knowledge of Iran's nuclear programs is limited to what Iran wants to let it know. It had no idea until a week ago that a second plant was under construction. And that may not be the only secret facility. Another reason for the different estimates is that Iran has multiple nuclear programs.