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In-Depth Issues:
Israel: Iranian Nuclear Program "Will Take Many Years to Restore" ( Ynet News)
Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said Wednesday:
"The Iranian program to produce nuclear weapons has suffered a dramatic blow and will take many years to restore it."
"The largest uranium enrichment facility in Natanz has been completely destroyed. The reprocessing facility for metallic uranium in Isfahan has been completely destroyed. The nuclear facility in Arak, which was intended to enable a plutogenic pathway for weapons, has been destroyed."
"Regarding the extent of the damage caused by the American bombing of the underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow, the estimates are that it will not be possible to restore it to normal operation over time."
See also Israel Atomic Energy Commission: Iran's Ability to Develop Nuclear Weapons Set Back Many Years ( Prime Minister's Office)
The Israel Atomic Energy Commission said Wednesday:
"The devastating U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable."
"We assess that the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."
U.S. Refueled Israeli Jets throughout Iran War - Ariel Kahana ( Israel Hayom)
It can now be revealed that some of the U.S. refueling planes dispatched to the region during the Iran military campaign conducted hundreds of aerial refueling operations for Israeli fighter jets flying to Iran.
The assistance was aimed at easing the burden on Israel's limited and aging tanker fleet.
The Israeli-Iranian War Is Not Over - Lt.-Col. (ret.) Robert Maginnis ( Fox News)
The Israeli-Iranian war is far from over. We are witnessing a tactical intermission, but the war remains alive in motive, method, and mindset.
Iran continues to deny Israel's right to exist, and Israel views Iran's nuclear program - and its regional proxy network - as existential threats.
Tehran still possesses the technical talent, the raw materials, and the motivation to rebuild and accelerate its nuclear weapons program.
Iran's missile strikes on Israel and U.S. bases in Qatar signaled that Tehran retains the capacity to strike deep into the region.
Hardliners in Tehran see the ceasefire as a pause to reload, not a step toward reconciliation.
If we understand war as a clash of wills, ideologies, and strategic aims, then this war continues.
We must prepare for a sustained period of covert confrontation and the risk of open warfare returning with little warning.
The writer is a retired U.S. Army officer and the author of 12 books.
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The Revolutionary Guards Will Protect the Islamic Republic - Nava Freiberg ( Times of Israel)
Israel spent years tracking the key figures at the top of the Islamic Republic's command structure.
Those killed on day one of Israel's attack included the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces and the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the military's central headquarters, the IRGC Aerospace Force, and the IRGC air defenses.
These leaders fulfilled a role beyond their military responsibilities. They made up a veteran core of the Islamic Republic's leadership, a cadre of dedicated believers around Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who forged their ties in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
Iran's security doctrine will in all likelihood remain the domain of the IRGC.
With 190,000 active troops and 600,000 volunteer paramilitary forces, the IRGC "has long been the Praetorian Guard to protect the supreme leader and the theocratic system," said Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute.
The IRGC controls Iran's missile program, nuclear ambitions, and network of proxy forces.
The regime's survival isn't necessarily in danger, neither by the military loss nor public sentiment.
"Zombie regimes can persist long beyond what wishful thinking in the West might suppose," Rubin noted.
Hizbullah Hails Iran's "Divine Victory" over Israel ( AFP)
Hizbullah on Wednesday offered its "most sincere congratulations" to the Islamic Republic of Iran, praising its "glorious divine victory."
"This is nothing but the beginning of a new historical phase in confronting American hegemony and Zionist arrogance in the region."
The Trump Doctrine on Nuclear Nonproliferation Is Born - Matthew Kroenig ( Washington Post)
The main lessons from this week are that countries that build the bomb risk getting bombed themselves.
Pursuing nuclear arms is not a path to security, but to insecurity.
By striking Iran's nuclear facilities on Saturday night, President Trump did not just deal a blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions. He also established an important new precedent.
By demonstrating that the U.S. is willing to use military force to stop the spread of the bomb, he made it much less likely that any other country will follow Iran's path and build an illegal nuclear program.
Until last week, the U.S. had never launched military strikes on the nuclear facilities of a country with which it was not at war. By bombing Iran, the U.S. has reset expectations.
If the U.S. had simply stood by and watched Iran cross the nuclear threshold, future American threats would have been perceived as a mere bluff that can safely be ignored.
Iran spent four decades and an estimated $500 billion on its nuclear program, only to have its nuclear facilities reduced to rubble. What other leader in their right mind will want to sign up for that deal?
This new reality will strengthen global nonproliferation efforts and make the world a safer place.
The writer is vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
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After the Iran ceasefire, Daily Alert returns
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- CIA: "Several Key Iranian Nuclear Facilities Were Destroyed"
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said Wednesday: "CIA can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran's Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes. This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years."
(U.S. Central Intelligence Agency)
- Post-Attack Assessment of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities - David Albright
Israel and the U.S. have targeted many Iranian nuclear sites, causing massive damage to its nuclear program and setting it back significantly. Overall, Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.
Complicating any effort to turn weapon-grade uranium into nuclear explosives have been extensive attacks against Iran's facilities and personnel to make the nuclear weapon itself. Its infrastructure to build the nuclear weapon has been severely damaged. The time Iran would need to build even a non-missile deliverable nuclear weapon has increased significantly.
High-resolution commercial satellite imagery shows the level of damage and destruction at the principal nuclear sites. These include the Natanz Nuclear Complex, Fordow site, the Esfahan Nuclear Complex, Lavisan 2 (the former location of the SPND HQ), the new SPND HQ, the Karaj Centrifuge Manufacturing Site, the IR-40 Arak Heavy Water Reactor and Heavy Water Production Plant, and Sanjarian (a former AMAD nuclear site that had shown signs of reactivation).
(Institute for Science and International Studies)
- Trump's Strikes on Iran Reinvigorate U.S.-Israel Ties - Shira Rubin
President Trump decided to help finish the attacks on Iran's nuclear program that Israel had started, a sign of the reinvigoration of ties between the two countries. The U.S. entry into Israel's war against Iran "is a step beyond anything we've ever experienced," said Yaki Dayan, Israel's former consul general in Los Angeles. "This projection of power now has every capital in the Middle East and beyond looking with amazement, and some jealousy, at this new axis between the U.S. and Israel."
Israelis point to Vice President JD Vance on Fox News on Monday, warning that Iranian attempts to rebuild its lost capabilities will be met "with a very, very powerful American military again." In the wake of the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Jerusalem's Old City walls have been illuminated in the colors of the American and Israeli flags, and billboards in Tel Aviv bearing Trump's image read, "Thank you, Mr. President."
David Wurmser, senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said Israel's willingness to do the heavy lifting on the battlefield fits with Trump's vision for regional partnerships. The U.S. can offer "the most minimal tactical assist" and "rely on the local force" to advance mutual interests, he said. (Washington Post)
- Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid Tells Parliament: The Iranians "Were Running for a Bomb" - Lorin Bell-Cross
Israel's opposition leader Yair Lapid told Parliament's Foreign Affairs Select Committee on Tuesday that he was in full agreement with Prime Minister Netanyahu on the need to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
"I saw the intelligence; we were facing an existential threat. I supported the goals of the operation," he said.
Lapid said that Iran's increased defense manufacturing "would have allowed them to have more ballistic missiles than Russia in less than two years. We have hit all this, and it is a good thing. The world is a safer place than it was 12 days ago....Not only were they enriching uranium, not only had they developed the next generation of centrifuges...they were running for a bomb."
Questioned by Labour MP Alex Ballinger about whether the action was legal, Lapid retorted: "What is the committee's position on an atomic bomb exploding in Israel in terms of international law?...We saw the intelligence that tells us that Iran is rushing to a bomb and international law can't do anything about it."
"The Iranians...are talking about two sides of an equation, while there are no two sides of an equation. This is a regime we have no problem with that says they want to kill all the Jews because they're Jews, because this is the deep, radical twisted version of Islam."
Lapid said that any future agreement had to have five basic conditions: no uranium enrichment inside Iran, no centrifuges, all enriched uranium has to be deposited outside of Iran, no ballistic missile program, and unlimited supervision.
Lapid added, "In order to discuss the two-state solution, the Palestinians have to prove to us that this doesn't become the base of the next attack against the Israeli people, against the innocent women and children who were attacked on October 7." (Jewish Chronicle-UK)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Renewed U.S. Nuclear Talks with Iran Expected - Danny Zaken
Next week American and Iranian negotiation teams are expected to meet again in Oman to discuss Tehran's nuclear program. President Trump said Wednesday: "We'll sit down with Iran in the coming days, maybe we'll sign an agreement. I don't think it's necessary. The only important thing is that there's no nuclear weapon, and we achieved that. I'm not lifting the sanctions. I can stop them if I want to."
Iran is in a dramatically different state than before the war; it's on its knees. An agreement would be critical for Iran, but is of limited importance to the U.S. An American diplomatic source noted that post-war Iran is in a significantly worse economic state due to massive spending, widespread destruction requiring reconstruction, a paralyzed economy, and a 95% drop in oil exports. The continuation of crippling sanctions means the regime has no realistic path to economic recovery.
China, the main buyer of smuggled Iranian oil, already secured alternative sources during the two-week war, primarily from Saudi Arabia, but also Russia. It's not clear if it will return to buying Iranian oil at previous levels.
According to American sources, envoy Steve Witkoff will present Iran with proposals for gradually lifting some sanctions, depending on the scope of Iran's agreement to allow oversight of its remaining nuclear facilities to ensure that it cannot develop nuclear weapons. (Israel Hayom)
- U.S. Demands Iran Surrender Enriched Uranium - Yoav Limor
The U.S. intends to present Iran with three baseline demands for reentering negotiations: a total ban on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the removal of all highly enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled, and limitations on future missile production. The U.S. and Israel are concerned that Iran might secretly accelerate its nuclear ambitions and develop a radiological weapon - a "dirty bomb."
The U.S. demand carries an implicit warning: if Iran refuses to surrender its enriched uranium, it risks facing another military strike. (Israel Hayom)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
War with Iran
- Tehran Should Let in the IAEA and Drop Its Forever War Against Israel - Editorial
President Trump could offer two tests of the Iranian regime's willingness to change. First, will it grant International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors immediate access to examine its nuclear sites? If not, Iran has no intention of dismantling what remains. Second, will Iran publicly recognize Israel's right to exist and renounce its desire to wipe the Jewish state off the map? That's the Iranian regime's forever war. If its leaders won't renounce it, they aren't interested in peace, only in recovering to fight again. Vigilance will be required to secure the war's gains. (Wall Street Journal)
- No, Iran's Nuclear Program Has Not Been Set Back by "Months" - Jake Wallis Simons
When Israel sends its troops into action, it's always the same. First they try to make you believe that it breaks "international law." Then they inflate the number of civilian casualties and argue that this makes it illegitimate. Then they insist that there is no such thing as a military solution to anything, and after the dust has settled they claim that the whole thing was a failure. Such is the playbook that is now being applied both to the Gaza war and to the "12-day war" with Iran.
The Ayatollah's nuclear dreams have been set back for years. Moreover, if the beast begins once again to rear its head, it can be decapitated once again in a fresh wave of Israeli strikes.
Iran has been humiliated and castrated, its forces, human capital and armaments severely degraded and its options to menace Israel drastically reduced. Iran has been struck a blow it has never experienced before, and has been rendered vulnerable to further Israeli action whenever the circumstances demand it.
Yes, the Iranian regime has not yet fallen; yes, the struggle continues. But let's raise a glass to the men and women of the IDF and the American Air Force who have made the world a safer place today.
(Substack)
- Israel's Action in Iran Engenders Unprecedented Respect in the Arab World - Shimon Sherman
"Israel's attack on the Iranian regime has only strengthened the prospects for an enlarged Abraham Accords security alliance," Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), told JNS. "Many in the Arab world, and particularly in the Gulf, are pleased and relieved that Israel took the courageous decision to initiate a massive assault against the Iranian nuclear and ballistic programs. The Gulf and the larger Arab world were under the same threat that Israel has faced."
"The United States has now played a key role in destroying the major Iranian uranium enrichment sites. However, it took Israel's initiative and success to encourage the United States to play such a crucial role in neutralizing the regime's nuclear program. Israel's action engenders unprecedented respect in the Arab world, more privately than publicly. Israel is emerging as the strong horse in the Middle East, which it can now help secure and stabilize as a lead designer and partner in forging new alliances." (JNS)
- The "Axis of Resistance" Is Shattered - Tony Badran
A few months before he was buried under the rubble of his Beirut bunker, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeated to his followers that Israel was "weaker than a spider's web." The "resistance" was led by Iran, a rising power with bases on Israel's borders. It controlled four Arab capitals and dominated the landmass across Iraq through Syria into Lebanon. In addition, Iran was allied with Russia and China.
In reality, Iran's winning hand was a mirage. It took Israel 21 months to blow through it.
Gaza, Iran's southern front, is now a wasteland. Next to go was Hizbullah, the best equipped of Iran's assets and the lynchpin of its regional network. Within a span of three months in 2024, Israel eliminated the group's entire command structure. Israel has maintained operational freedom and continues to take out cadres and arms caches inside Lebanon at will.
In December 2024, the Assad regime, the Islamic Republic's strategic ally since the 1979 revolution, was gone. The new Sunni regime in Damascus is now intercepting weapons shipments to Hizbullah. Iran's multiple militias in Iraq displayed little motivation to get slaughtered on behalf of Iranian adventurism. Now, Iran's nuclear dreams have gone up in smoke, much like its regional enterprise. (Tablet)
- Why Powerful Pro-Tehran Militias in Iraq Stayed Quiet amid Iran Conflict - Louisa Loveluck
When U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities, concern rippled through neighboring Iraq where pro-Iranian militias wield much influence and the majority of the people are Shiite Muslims, like in Iran.
But those Iraqi militias have proved to be conspicuously quiet.
These groups have become warier of involvement in external conflict and more independent of external backers. The Iran-linked militias have also become central players in the Iraqi government, earning billions of dollars from state coffers, operating extensive business networks, and holding more power than ever before. About $3.5 billion is allocated in the Iraqi budget to pay militia salaries. There is much at stake if these groups become a target, Middle East analysts say.
The militias in Iraq have long been an important part of Iran's sprawling network of proxy forces. Their tempered response to events in Iran reflects their desire not to be dragged into the sort of conflict that left Hizbullah eviscerated in Lebanon, said Lahib Higel, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Iraq. "They don't want to face the same fate." (Washington Post)
- A Justified War Can Potentially Create a More Just World - Gil Troy
Many Americans refused to see how deranged, dangerous, and dishonest the Iranian Mullahs and Revolutionary Guards have been for decades. Their worldviews often rely too much on diplomacy and underestimate the evil of some enemies.
Most Israelis don't take this war - or any military action - lightly. We know what it's like to see wonderful young people die just because we want to live in the Jewish homeland. In the last week alone, we've seen apartment towers collapse, hospitals bombed, research labs destroyed, hundreds injured, and Arabs, Jews, and Ukrainians seeking cancer treatment murdered. So Israelis know what war is like, yet don't avoid it when it's justified.
Since my children enlisted, many American Jews ask me, "How much longer do your kids have to serve," as if their sacred army service is a prison sentence. Most Israelis ask, "Where are your kids serving and is it meaningful?" My American Jewish friends say, "Boy, I hope this war ends quickly." Most Israelis say, "I hope this war ends successfully."
Speak to friends in the Persian community if you believed diplomacy was working or ever would work with Iran's Islamist theocrats. Speak to friends in the Israeli community if you want to better understand how a justified war can potentially create a more just world.
The writer, a Distinguished Scholar of North American History at McGill University, is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute. (Los Angeles Jewish Journal)
The U.S. and Iran
- Why the U.S. Strike on Iran Was Perfectly Timed - Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Charles Hamilton
For more than two decades, the U.S. has employed every tool short of direct military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Sanctions, sabotage, cyberattacks, and diplomatic negotiations all aimed to slow Tehran's march toward becoming a nuclear power. Four administrations - including Trump's own in 2019 - have contemplated striking Iran's nuclear facilities but ultimately pulled back due to the enormous risks.
The bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites represents the culmination of the most rehearsed and studied war plan of the last twenty years. President Trump's swift shift from diplomacy to direct action appears to reflect a unique convergence of favorable conditions. The first is Israel's systematic and sequential degradation of Iran's network of proxy groups since Hamas's October 2023 attack.
Israel's assault on Iran degraded its air defense network and penetrated and disrupted Iran's military communications. These effects enabled the U.S. strikes with unprecedentedly low risk to American forces and reduced the threat of effective retaliation.
The U.S. military's "bunker-buster" bombs that pulverized Iran's Fordo facility were designed by the U.S. Air Force beginning in 2004 for exactly this mission. This marked their first combat use. If the attack is eventually found to have destroyed Fordo, it would validate two decades of military planning and technological development.
The president was presented with this same strike plan in 2019 and deferred. It appears he waited until Israel set the theater this time around.
(Defense One)
- Now Everyone Can See that Iran Can't Take On the U.S. - Paul du Quenoy
Tehran's pathetic retaliation after Washington's strikes on its nuclear facilities expose the limits of Iranian power. America's deep penetration into the heart of Iran's quest for the bomb - a major pillar of the Islamic Republic's security strategy for decades, as well as a matter of national prestige - has demolished Tehran's claim to be a serious power capable of taking on the U.S. and its allies.
Multiple Iranian leaders vowed revenge, but their launching 14 missiles at America's Al-Udeid base in Qatar, whose aerial defense systems promptly shot them all down after being forewarned of the attack by Iran, showed it to be face-saving of the most pitiful kind. The mullahs don't have the cards to take on the U.S., and now everyone - at home and abroad - can see it. (Telegraph-UK)
Observations:
- Most commentators in the Arab world acknowledge that Israel has secured unprecedented achievements in the war with Iran. According to them, Israel succeeded - thanks to the American strikes on Iran's nuclear sites - in achieving a strategic gain that the IDF could not have attained on its own.
- The Israeli-U.S. attacks significantly disrupted Iran's nuclear program. Senior security sources claim that Iran's main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan were destroyed, and 17 top Iranian nuclear scientists were killed.
- Yet, Iran still has 80 nuclear scientists who survived the war and who constitute a significant reservoir of knowledge regarding the nuclear project. Defense assessments also suggest that Iran retains 1,000 ballistic missiles and 150 launchers.
- Israel possesses some of the most advanced military and intelligence capabilities in the world, and it has now sent a clear message to every capital in the region: its long arm can reach anywhere.
Israel has successfully restored its deterrence power to an unprecedented level.
Israel delayed Iran's nuclear program by at least several years.
- Iran is still capable of beginning to rebuild its nuclear program. Iran does not intend to give up its nuclear project - even if the current regime were to fall. This aspiration is deeply rooted in Iran's national vision and predates the Islamic Revolution. Security officials warn that it is indeed possible Iran transferred some of its enriched material and advanced centrifuges to other underground facilities capable of continuing uranium enrichment.
- Senior political officials assess that Iran will return to the negotiating table in pursuit of a new nuclear agreement. However, there is no indication that it is willing to relinquish its core principle of enriching uranium on Iranian soil. It is highly likely that Khamenei will now covertly attempt to accelerate nuclear bomb production and resume ballistic missile development.
The writer, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center.
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