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In-Depth Issues:
Israeli Leader: Iranian Regime Sees President Trump as Enemy Number One, Wants to Kill Him - Taylor Penley ( Fox News)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Iran's Islamic regime had pinpointed President Donald Trump as a threat to its nuclear program and actively worked to assassinate him.
"They want to kill him. He's enemy number one. He's a decisive leader. He never took the path that others took to try to bargain with them in a way that is weak, giving them basically a pathway to enrich uranium, which means a pathway to the bomb, padding it with billions and billions of dollars."
"He took up this fake agreement and basically tore it up. He killed Qasem Soleimani. He made it very clear, including now, 'You cannot have a nuclear weapon, which means you cannot enrich uranium.' He's been very forceful, so for them, he's enemy number one."
IDF Cuts Iran's Missile Threat in Half - Lilach Shoval ( Israel Hayom)
Israeli Air Force operations Monday night resulted in the destruction of more than 20 surface-to-surface missiles moments before their intended launch toward Israel.
The same evening witnessed multiple attacks by Israeli aircraft on 100 military targets in central Iran.
Israel has now destroyed 120 missile launchers, 1/3 of Iran's total launcher inventory, and its operations have reduced the potential missile barrage scale by half.
The Iranian Social Media Discourse: Few Signs of Support for Overthrow of Regime - Orit Perlov ( Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
The discourse on social media by Iranian exiles in the U.S. and Israel centers on the call to overthrow the Iranian regime.
However, this campaign does not reflect the true mood in the streets of Iran. No current grassroots campaigns exist to bring people into the streets.
Iranians within the country clearly choose to support their country over Israel's military actions.
Iranians express their discontent with the "Israeli bear hug" that portrays them as traitors, viewing it as suffocating rather than supportive.
Many oppose linking Israel's military actions to their internal struggle to overthrow the regime.
Therefore, current expectations of a major popular uprising are more wishful thinking than a reflection of the actual situation on the ground.
The writer, former co-editor of the Israel Foreign Ministry website in Arabic, is a social media analyst at INSS.
How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises Questions - Vivian Yee ( New York Times)
Iran is often cast as one of the world's most dangerous villains, but in the year and a half that followed the attack by Hamas on Israel in Oct. 2023, Iran has suffered blow after blow.
This accelerated on Friday with the start of the Israeli campaign, which has shown, as never before, just how compromised and weak Iranian forces really are - and how few ways they have of hitting back.
"Iran has basically demonstrated that it was outgunned and outsmarted again by Israel," said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
For years, Iran's strategy for self-protection rested on a combination of its armed partners in the region and its own missile capabilities to deter attacks on Iranian soil.
Instead, Israel demolished Hizbullah - which sat on Israel's northern border with an arsenal of rockets - during a war in Lebanon last year.
Israel Navy's New Aerial Defense System Shoots Down Iranian Drones - Dean Shmuel Elmas ( Globes)
On Sunday night, missile ships of the Israel Navy shot down 8 UAVs launched at Israel by Iran using the Barak Magen air defense system and the LRAD interceptor for the first time, the IDF announced Monday.
Israeli missile ships have also intercepted UAVs using the C-Dome system, the maritime version of the Iron Dome air defense system.
Israel Will Not Allow Itself to Be Wiped Off the Earth - John Podhoretz ( Commentary)
The meaning of the attack on Iran is unmistakable. Israel will not allow itself to be wiped off the earth, and it will not allow the Jewish people to cower in terror at their future.
And it will thrive, as successful nations that defend themselves from evil and prevail in the wake of it always thrive.
New State of Israel Website: Operation Rising Lion ( Israel National Digital Agency)
Operation Rising Lion was launched in response to the repeated failure of international efforts to deter Iran through peaceful means.
Israel views the enforcement of red lines as essential for preserving international security.
Israel remains committed to a diplomatic resolution - provided it leads to verifiable nuclear disarmament and an end to Iran's aggression.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Centrifuges at Iran's Natanz Site Likely Destroyed, Nuclear Watchdog Says - David Gritten
Some 15,000 centrifuges at Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz were likely to have been "severely damaged if not destroyed altogether" following Israeli strikes on Friday, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi told the BBC on Monday.
This was a result of power cuts caused by the attack, in which an above-ground plant was "completely destroyed." The damage was likely caused despite the underground hall housing the centrifuges not being directly hit.
Grossi also said four buildings were destroyed in a separate attack on Friday on the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center - the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a facility to convert uranium hexafluoride to uranium metal, which was under construction.
(BBC News)
- A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities -
Summer Said
Iran has been sending messages via Arab intermediaries that it seeks an end to hostilities. But with Israeli planes able to fly freely over Tehran and Iranian counterattacks inflicting minimal damage, Israeli leaders have little incentive to halt their assault before doing more to destroy Iran's nuclear sites and further weaken the theocratic government's hold on power. Israel has said the attacks will continue until Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed.
(Wall Street Journal)
See also Israel Sees Iran's Willingness to Return to Negotiations as a Stalling Tactic - Sudarsan Raghavan
Some Israeli analysts see Iran's willingness to return to the negotiating table as a stalling tactic. Trump should wait until Israel gets a decisive victory, giving him more leverage, they said. "They are trying to put a wedge between the U.S. and Israel," said Avner Golov, former senior director for foreign policy at Israel's National Security Council. "They are trying to push America to push Israel to stop and buy time for diplomacy." The longer Israel's attacks continue, the more the Iranian regime will be debilitated militarily and economically. (Wall Street Journal)
- Trump Wants Iran to "Give Up Entirely" on Nuclear Weapons - CBS News White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs
President Trump told reporters on Monday that he wants "a real end" to the nuclear problem with Iran, with Iran "giving up entirely" on nukes. "I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire," he said. The Israelis aren't slowing up their barrage on Iran, he predicted. "You're going to find out over the next two days." (X)
- "The World Needs This War Even If They Don't Know It" - Gabrielle Weiniger
The Iranian missile strike on a residential building in the Tel Aviv suburb of Bat Yam happened at 2:30 a.m., but rescue workers were still working to recover bodies well into the late afternoon, with many unaccounted for.
A direct hit killed seven including two children. An entire block was turned skeletal, dozens of buildings damaged beyond repair, windows shattered and shutters hanging off their hinges.
The building's owner, Israel Dezoraev, said, "This is my life. I'm not in shock. I am optimistic. I don't care if they'll pay to fix this building. We need this war. Europe needs it, America needs it, and all the world need it - even if they don't know that yet." Dezoraev, who arrived from the former Soviet Union as a child, added: "In the Bible, if someone comes to kill you, you have to kill him first."
Col. Mickey David, commander of the Tel Aviv district in the Home Front Command, said: "You see at every scene you go to. Anyone who was in a protected area was saved. Even when there is no safe room or shelter, if you go to the most protected place there is, like a stairwell, it saved lives."
Speaking in Bat Yam, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, "We are in an existential battle, one that every citizen of Israel now understands. Think about what would happen if Iran had nuclear weapons to drop on Israeli cities. Think about what would happen if Iran had 20,000 such missiles....This is an existential threat to Israel." (Sunday Times-UK)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- 24 Israelis Killed in Iran Attacks - Yonah Jeremy Bob
As of Monday evening, Iranian rocket attacks have killed 24 Israeli civilians and wounded over 590 people.
(Jerusalem Post)
See also Taking Precautions Saves Lives - Yonah Jeremy Bob
The IDF on Monday said its shoot-down success rate against Iran's missiles was 80-90%, with only 5-10% hitting residential areas. It said the Israel Air Force's success in destroying dozens of launchers and many missiles has reduced the number of Iranian missiles launched from hundreds at a time to dozens.
The IDF said it is constantly adjusting strategies and learning how the Iranians conduct their missile fire.
In one area of Tel Aviv, there was an almost direct hit between two safe rooms, yet all of the civilians in the safe rooms survived.
There was only one case of a direct hit on a safe room, in Tel Aviv, which led to two civilian deaths.
Even in that case, the civilians in their safe rooms directly one floor above and below the hit all survived.
(Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Eliminates Iranian Chief of Staff Appointed Days Ago - Lilach Shoval
Israeli Air Force jets struck a command center in Tehran on Monday night, killing Iran's Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Ali Shadmani, the closest adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He had replace Chief of Staff Alam Ali Rashid, who was eliminated in Israel's opening strike on Friday.
(Israel Hayom)
- A Combat Navigator Describes the Air War over Iran
Lt.-Col. (res.) N., an Israel Air Force combat navigator, recalls, "For years, we've been preparing, but I never believed it would actually happen. Only in the morning, after I received the message 'Tonight we fly for real,' did I realize this wasn't just another rehearsal. It's happening now."
"That night, I attacked missiles, launchers, control systems, and more in western Iran. In the end, I know that every bomb we dropped meant fewer missiles would be fired at our families."
"I never believed it would happen so quickly, literally night after night. It's a powerful feeling. You find yourself flying over a huge city, seeing it spread beneath you, knowing that hidden within it are terrorist infrastructures. You release the bombs and watch them with your eyes until they hit the target. This is not imagination. This is reality. We're making history here."
"We haven't done everything yet, obviously. This is a huge country that has been preparing for a confrontation with us for years. But we managed to establish a certain air superiority, and also a sense of security. There are still many targets to strike, but thanks to the efforts of people from all branches of security, we're going on defensive missions with precise intelligence that allows us to strike terrorist centers again and again." (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
War with Iran
- What If One of the Iranian Missiles that Got Past Israeli Air Defenses Had a Nuclear Warhead? - Col. (ret.) Richard Kemp
Israel and Iran are not "trading blows," as some have phrased it. Israel is dealing strategic devastation on Iran, eliminating much of the terrorist regime's military top brass and key nuclear scientists, and attacking nuclear weapons sites, air defense systems, and offensive drone and missile capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran is lashing out with drones and ballistic missiles fired into Israel's population centers, deliberately killing and wounding civilians.
For the last two nights I have heard ballistic missiles roar overhead and seen Israel's impressive air defenses knock some of them out of the sky. What if just one that did get through had been armed with a nuclear warhead? Vast numbers would have been killed. That's why Israel had to launch this pre-emptive assault on the Islamic Republic. Israeli intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency both saw that Iran was on the cusp of obtaining nuclear weapons capability.
The rest of the world should be grateful to Israel because a nuclear armed Iran would have threatened us all. All wars are terrible but sometimes they have to be fought to prevent an even worse evil.
The writer, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK's national crisis management committee, COBRA. (Sunday Express-UK)
- America's Security Will Be Bolstered if Israel Wins - Walter Russell Mead
A series of military blows has exposed the weakness of Iran's sulphurously belligerent regime and demonstrated Israel's military and intelligence supremacy in the Middle East. As in the months after Oct. 7, 2023, a determined prime minister harnessed the Israeli military machine to orchestrate a dazzling series of victories that stunned the world even if they did not win it over. America's security will be bolstered if Israel wins.
The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College.
(Wall Street Journal)
- Israel Has Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program by One to Three Years - Seth Cropsey
Operation Rising Lion is a prime example of Israeli strategic culture. When Israel has the time and capacity to plan an operation down to the smallest detail, the results are spectacular, whether the pager/walkie-talkie attack that crippled Hizbullah's leadership, the September 2024 commando raid against an Iranian missile facility in northwestern Syria, the 2007 attack on Syria's nuclear site, or the 1981 strike against Iraq's Osirak reactor.
Rising Lion is on a completely different scale from those earlier operations. Israel sequenced its opening moves, simultaneously disabling Iran's remaining air defenses and radars, killing high-ranking Iranian military leaders, and hitting Iranian missile silos. Subsequent strike waves began against nuclear and conventional military targets.
Israel has crippled Iran's command structures, dented its missile arsenal and substantially damaged its nuclear weapons program, hitting key sites in Isfahan, Arak, Natanz and Parchin. Israel also killed several Iranian nuclear scientists and leaders involved with the nuclear program, extinguishing crucial institutional and bureaucratic knowledge and creating more hurdles between enrichment and weaponization. If Rising Lion ended tonight, Israel would have set back Iran's nuclear program by one to three years.
The writer, president of Yorktown Institute, served as deputy undersecretary of the Navy. (Wall Street Journal)
- Iranian Payback, Long Overdue - Thane Rosenbaum
After deposing the Shah of Iran in 1979, the Islamists' first order of business was to take 52 American diplomats hostage and hold them for 444 days. According to the ground rules of the modern world, embassies, and the diplomats who work there, are inviolable. You don't blindfold and keep them prisoner.
In 1983, Iran-backed Hizbullah bombed the American Embassy in Beirut, along with a Marine barracks, killing nearly 300. In 2011, Iran attempted to blow up a restaurant in Washington, D.C. More recently, death threats against Donald Trump, and some of his advisors who scuttled the Iran deal, were issued. All along, Iranian zealots burned American flags and chanted, "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!"
Iran embarked on a plan to arm itself with nuclear and ballistic weapons aimed at the West - Israel only being its most favored target. It regularly cheated, lied and defied inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
With this rich history of terror sponsorship and anti-American animus, what is all this nonsense that Israel's airstrikes over Tehran is not "our war?" This is absolutely America's war - even if it allows Israel to wage it. Now let's assist Israel in finishing the job. (Los Angeles Jewish Journal)
- The Ayatollahs Are Tottering. Only the BBC Hasn't Noticed - Charles Moore
Reporting on Gaza, the BBC repeatedly complains that journalists are forbidden entry to the area by Israel. This then becomes an excuse for repeating uncritically every line of Hamas and the UN agencies.
In the case of Iran, the BBC reminds audiences that it is not allowed there, but does not criticize Iran for this. Instead, it concentrates on reporting from Israel, where it tries to make as much of the war damage as possible.
In global power politics, this is arguably the biggest news story since the end of the Cold War. Yet the BBC muffles the plight of Iran and sets up a sort of moral equivalence in which the two countries "trade blows." It does not remind us that Israel attacked because it is the policy of Iran to destroy it and it has nearly reached the nuclear capacity to do so. Nor does it mention that most of the Iranian attacks target civilians, whereas none of the Israeli ones do.
Its reporting also gives the impression that the effect of Iranian bombing of Israel is devastating. It is horrible all right but, so far at least, largely ineffective.
Signing off from the scene of an Iranian raid on Bat Yam on the "Today" program, Anna Foster complained not about the Iranian raids whose effects she had just seen with her own eyes, but about "what has been a dangerous and provocative raid on Iran."
The writer, a member of the House of Lords, is a former editor of the Daily Telegraph, the Spectator, and the Sunday Telegraph.
(Telegraph-UK)
Observations:
- The Israeli operation has left the regime in Tehran stunned. The boldness of the move, the depth of the intelligence penetration, the quality and variety of operational capabilities, the number of targets hit, and the absolute freedom of action in the airspace has far exceeded what the Iranians thought possible.
- The regime's failure to protect its personnel and assets adds to its failure to deter Israel or prevent and disrupt the assault. The operation has exposed the regime's weakness, not only in the eyes of its own citizens but also to the proxy forces under its patronage and to the countries of the region.
- However, the mission is far from over. The ayatollah regime has already proven during its war with Iraq its ability to endure prolonged hardship, even at a high cost. As the recent missile launches targeting densely populated areas in Israel reaffirm, Iran will use any means or target to exact revenge and restore its honor.
- Israel must aim for the war to end not just with a devastating blow to Iran's nuclear and missile programs but also with enforceable mechanisms that will, for many years, prevent the Islamic Republic from rebuilding its military and strategic capabilities.
The writer, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, is a former Israeli national security advisor and head of the National Security Council who served for 30 years in the Israel Security Agency.
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