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  DAILY ALERT Tuesday,
October 21, 2014

In-Depth Issues:

Islamist Wounds Two Canadian Soldiers in Quebec Terror Attack - Maxime Deland (Toronto Sun-National Post- Canada)
    Martin "Ahmad" Rouleau, 25, who ran down two Canadian soldiers in St-Jean-sur-Richelieu on Monday, one of whom was in critical condition, called 911 to say that he carried out his acts in the name of Allah.
    After police gave chase, Rouleau lost control of his car, which overturned. He crawled out a window with a long knife and an eyewitness said the man charged at a woman police officer, before being shot and killed.
    Prime Minister Stephen Harper said, "there are clear indications that the individual had become radicalized." A neighbor said Rouleau had grown out his beard and started wearing a turban after converting to Islam a year ago.
    A Twitter account under the name Ahmad Rouleau featured the banner of the Islamic State, which called on its followers to kill Canadians because of Ottawa's role in the anti-ISIS military coalition.

British Police Officers Targeted by Islamic State Terrorists - Tom Whitehead (Telegraph-UK)
    Four British Islamist terrorists said to have sworn allegiance to the Islamic State have been charged with plotting to kill police officers or soldiers, possibly in a drive-by shooting on London streets, Scotland Yard has alleged.
    The men had obtained a handgun with a silencer, had images of two police officers and two police community support officers, and had conducted "hostile reconnaissance" of a police station and a Territorial Army barracks in the capital.
    Tarik Hassane, 21, Suhaib Majeed, 20, Nyall Hamlett, 24, and Momem Motasim, 21, were charged on Friday with intending to commit acts of terrorism or assisting others to do so.
    Scotland Yard Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley said several terrorist plots were now being disrupted in Britain every year and there had been 218 arrests in the past 12 months alone.

Britain to Crack Down on Muslim Brotherhood - Robert Mendick and Robert Verkaik (Telegraph-UK)
    Downing Street is to order a crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and a network of Islamist groups accused of fuelling extremism in Britain and across the Arab world.
    Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, described the Brotherhood as "at heart a terrorist organization."
    A senior source said "an incredibly complex web" of up to 60 organizations in Britain, including charities, think tanks and even television channels, with links to the Muslim Brotherhood, had been identified.
    One expert said that the Brotherhood was now operating from three major bases - London, Istanbul and Doha, the capital of Qatar.

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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Report: U.S. May OK More Centrifuges in Iran Nuclear Talks - Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim
    The Obama administration has sweetened its offer to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations, saying it might accept Tehran operating 4,000 centrifuges, up from the previous 1,300, the semiofficial Iranian Mehr news agency said Monday. Abbas Araqchi, a deputy foreign minister and nuclear negotiator, told the Iranian parliament's foreign affairs committee that the U.S. "made concessions," the news agency said.
        Ray Takeyh, an Iran specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the U.S. sweetener may encourage Iran to drag out negotiations to see what better offer it might receive after a few more months of talks. (Los Angeles Times)
        See also Report: U.S. Willing to Accept 5,000 Iran Centrifuges
    Israel Channel 2 TV reported that the U.S. is willing to accept an agreement with Iran that would permit it to retain 5,000 centrifuges. (Israel Hayom)
  • UN: Iran Not Cooperating with Nuclear Probe - Fredrik Dahl
    Iran has still not implemented all the nuclear transparency measures it had agreed to carry out by Aug. 25, Yukiya Amano, the head of the UN atomic energy agency, said on Monday, suggesting little headway in an inquiry into suspected bomb research. The IAEA has been trying for years to get to the bottom of Western intelligence reports suggesting Iran was designing a nuclear warhead. (Reuters)
  • Turkey to Let Iraqi Kurds Join Fight Against Islamic State in Kobane, Syria
    Turkey is to allow Iraqi Kurdish fighters to cross the Syrian border to fight Islamic State (IS) militants in Kobane, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Monday. "Turkey has no wish to see Kobane fall," Cavusoglu said. (BBC News)
        See also Who Will Help Turkey Help Kobane? - Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (Guardian-UK)
        See also Turkey Will Let Iraqi Kurds, But Not Turkish Kurds, Fight Extremists in Syria - Sophia Jones (Huffington Post)
  • Tribal Revolt in Syria Against Islamic State Fails, 700 Killed - Liz Sly
    Over a three-day period in early August in Abu Hamam, in Syria's eastern Deir al-Zour province, vengeful Islamic State fighters shelled, beheaded, crucified and shot 700 members of the Shaitat tribe after they dared to rise up against the extremists. Many of the bodies remain uncollected, offering a chilling reminder to residents elsewhere of the fate that awaits those who dare rebel. (Washington Post)
        See also Islamic State Seizes Two Yazidi Villages in Iraq - Loveday Morris and Mustafa Salim (Washington Post)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Israel "Deeply Concerned" over Emerging Iran Nuclear Deal - Shlomo Cesana and Yori Yalon
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday of the dangers a nuclear-armed Iran would pose. "This threat is grave to all of us, far more than the threat of the Islamic State group. Today, we are facing the danger of an agreement that would leave Iran as a nuclear threshold state, with thousands of centrifuges with which it could produce material for a nuclear bomb within a short period of time."  (Israel Hayom)
  • Ya'alon: Israel Won't Allow Gaza Reconstruction If Hamas Rebuilds Infiltration Tunnels
    Israel will not allow the reconstruction of Gaza if Hamas uses construction materials to rebuild infiltration tunnels to carry out terror attacks on Israelis, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said on Monday. During a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York, Ya'alon said: "We want the residents of Gaza to live in dignity and prosperity, rebuild their homes and return to normal life. But, we are very worried. Just yesterday Hamas representatives said they intend to reconstruct the infiltration tunnels, instead of rebuilding the homes of Gaza's residents."  (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
  • No Agreement Seen as Iran Nuclear Talks Deadline Looms - Dennis Ross
    Hardly anyone involved in the Iranian nuclear negotiations has expressed optimism about meeting the Nov. 24 deadline for a comprehensive agreement. A rollback of the Iranian nuclear program in return for a rollback of sanctions seems increasingly beyond reach.
        One possibility would be an extension of the negotiations under the current terms. Yet this would essentially recognize a new status quo for Iran's nuclear program, in which Iran is only two or three months away from being able to break-out to producing weapons-grade enriched uranium. The writer served as special assistant to President Obama and as a senior director at the National Security Council. (Foreign Affairs)
  • The New York Times and Israeli Settlements - Again - Elliott Abrams
    The New York Times was at it again on Oct. 14. In an editorial about the symbolic vote in the UK parliament backing Palestinian statehood, the Times' editorial board unloaded yet again with a barrage of untruths. The Times claims that "Israel continues to build new settlements" and that expansion of existing ones is "shrinking the territory available for a Palestinian state." Neither assertion is true.
        In the last decade the Israelis removed all the settlements in Gaza and four in the West Bank. The days of building new settlements all over the West Bank are long gone. And "settlement expansion" has meant expansion of population, not territory, so their footprint in the West Bank has not changed. The writer is a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at CFR. (Council on Foreign Relations)
  • No Connection between Islamic State and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Khaled Abu Toameh
    The rise of the Islamic State is one of the by-products of the "Arab Spring," which began as a secular revolt against decades of tyranny and corruption in the Arab world. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the last thing Arabs had in mind when they took to the streets to protest against decades of dictatorship and bad government.
        In fact, the "liberation" of Jerusalem is ranked sixth among the Islamic State's objectives. Indeed, the group's failure to express solidarity with the Palestinians or Hamas during the Gaza war drew strong condemnations in the Arab world. (Gatestone Institute)

Will Mahmoud Abbas Reject Israeli Protection? - Steven J. Rosen (Gatestone Institute)

  • Shortly after the death of Yasser Arafat on November 11, 2004, and the election of Mahmoud Abbas to the Palestinian Authority [PA] presidency in January 2005, the U.S. Department of State increased its security assistance to the PA and began to promote Palestinian security cooperation with Israeli security services.
  • Today, security makes up a sizeable proportion of the PA budget, accounting for 26% of 2013 expenditures. Of the 83,000 PA civil servants in the West Bank, 31,000 (37%) are "defense workers." There is now one security person for every 52 Palestinian residents compared to one educator for every 75 residents.
  • In April 2010, Israel submitted an official report on enhanced Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation to the international Palestinian donors' group. It reported that a mechanism for enhanced coordination has "been established between the two sides. Priority requests are now processed within just a few minutes. In 2009, coordinated operations numbered 1,297, a 72% increase over 2008." A year later Israel reported that, in 2011, 764 joint security meetings were held between Israeli and Palestinian security authorities.
  • In recent months Mahmoud Abbas has been making a series of threats against Israel, even including the idea that he will terminate security cooperation with Israel if his political demands are not met. Abbas, however, has ample evidence that this security cooperation is at least as important to his security, and to control of the territory by Fatah and the PA.
  • Most Israeli intelligence experts believe that withdrawal of the IDF from the West Bank would quickly lead to the end of the PA and the rise of Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said in September that, if the IDF were not there, Hamas would take over and other terrorists groups such as Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda and Islamic State would be able to operate freely in the West Bank.

    The writer, former foreign policy director of AIPAC, is now director of the Washington Project at the Middle East Forum.

        See also Can the Palestinian Authority Survive Without the IDF? - Elhanan Miller
    Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser, said, "Without Israel, Abu Mazen (Abbas) and Fatah cannot survive for even 10 minutes." It "would lead to the end of their regime if Israel were to withdraw [from the West Bank], which it won't do because of its own interests." Today, more than 90% of the arrests of Hamas operatives in the West Bank are carried out by Israel, not the PA, Amidror noted. (Times of Israel)

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