• Egypt Islamist Parties the Big Winners in Second Round of Voting - Amro Hassan
  Islamist parties have solidified their lead in Egypt's historic parliamentary elections, capturing about 70% of the seats in the second phase of a three-part poll, according to results released Saturday. The Muslim Brotherhood said it won about 47% of 180 seats in the second round. The al-Nour party, part of the more religiously conservative Salafi movement, won 20%. The last round of voting is scheduled for January. Secular parties garnered less than 10%. (Los Angeles Times)
• Inside Syria's Death Zone: Assad's Regime Hunts People in Homs
  The regime in Damascus is using snipers to hunt down its own people. Beginning in the afternoon and continuing throughout the night, the wide street that separates the Khalidiya and Bayada neighborhoods in Homs becomes a death zone. Snipers working for Syrian intelligence, who are nothing more than death squads, and the Shabiha killers, mercenaries who are paid daily wages and often earn a little extra income by robbing their victims, shoot at anything that moves.
      In Homs, anywhere from five to 15 people die every day, most as the victims of snipers. The insurgents have counted more than 200 sniper positions in Homs, from which people are being shot arbitrarily and without warning - not because they are protesting, but merely because they are there. Some 200 to 300 tanks of the "Assad army" have been posted outside Homs for weeks. Residents anticipate an attack any day now. Everyone wonders what is making Assad hesitate. (Der Spiegel-Germany)
      See also Assad's Lebanese Invasion - Mitchell Prothero
  The Syria revolt has spilled over into Lebanon. Over the last few months, Syrian troops have repeatedly crossed into Lebanese territory in a bid to stop smugglers and deter both refugees from leaving and armed opponents of the regime from mounting operations. Hizbullah, which has stood firmly behind the Syrian regime, has been Assad's primary Lebanese ally in this crackdown. Hizbullah's internal security apparatus engages in harassment, kidnapping, and cross-border rendition of Syrian anti-regime activists. (Foreign Policy)
• Palestinian Rapprochement Leaves Israel Unimpressed - Matthew Kalman
  Following talks in Cairo with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas announced that a joint committee would prepare for elections in May to the Palestine National Council, the ruling body of the PLO. Khaled Abu Toameh, a Palestinian commentator, said the agreement by Hamas to join the PLO did not necessarily mean they had finally accepted the idea of peace with Israel. "Joining the PLO does not mean Hamas will necessarily change its strategy or give up on armed struggle," he said. "They ran in the 2006 election held under the Oslo peace accords but still refused to recognize the accords."  (Independent-UK)
      See also Hamas: We'll Join PLO to Keep It True to Its Mission - Khaled Abu Toameh
  Hamas is joining the PLO not as a result of a change in its ideology but because it wants the PLO to stick to its original platform - liberating Palestine and achieving the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees. Hamas "foreign minister" Osama Hamdan stressed, "Anyone who thinks Hamas has changed its positions and now accepts the PLO's defeatist political program is living in an illusion."  (Jerusalem Post)

• Israel Will Not Renew Talks If Hamas Joins PA - Herb Keinon
  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel will not engage in any negotiations with the Palestinian Authority if it enters into a unity government with Hamas. He said that Israel is "not prepared to allow a Palestinian state to turn into Gaza or Lebanon," meaning a territory from which thousands of rockets are launched into Israel. (Jerusalem Post)
• Israel: Palestinians Are Not Working toward Peace - Barak Ravid
  Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Sunday that the Palestinians are not working toward peace but rather trying to internationalize the conflict. Therefore, Israel must work to manage the conflict and not solve it. "No territorial concession will solve the real issues: refugees, security arrangements, and Jerusalem." "The only change that would happen here if we return to 1967 borders would be that the Kassam and Grad rocket fire will not only come from Gaza into southern Israeli cities but also from Kalkilya [in the West Bank] into central Israel."
      "The countries who criticized us need to understand that construction in the West Bank is not an obstacle to peace and those who pose an obstacle to negotiations, and the opportunity for peace, are the Palestinians who refuse to negotiate with us."  (Ha'aretz)
      See also Ya'alon: U.S. Shifted from Resolving to Managing Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Gil Hoffman
  Vice Premier Moshe Ya'alon suggested Sunday that Israel had persuaded President Obama to change his strategy from trying to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to merely managing it. (Jerusalem Post)
• Archeologists Discover 2nd Temple Seal in Jerusalem - Melanie Lidman
  Archeologists have discovered a 2,000-year-old clay seal from the Second Temple period that was used to show that payment had been made for offerings to the Temple. The 1 cm.-by-1 cm. ancient seal with the words "Pure for God" written in Aramaic was found near the Shiloah Pool in the City of David. Similar seals were mentioned in the Mishnah (Tractate Shekalim 5:1-5): "Whoever required libations would go to Yohanan who was in charge of the stamps and give him money and would receive a stamp from him in return."
      "This shows the connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem and the Temple Mount," said Minister of Culture and Sport Limor Livnat. "And [the discoveries] don't stop - we are always finding more and more."  (Jerusalem Post)

• Was the Arab Spring a Victory for Extremism? - Jeffrey Goldberg
  Just a few months ago, we were told that battalions of tweeting secularists were steering the revolution and that the people of Egypt did not want sharia, or Islamic law, to govern their lives. They simply wanted freedom. This was Selma on the Nile. A dozen years ago Mubarak told me, "My people expect a firm hand. If we don't lead strongly, they will turn to the mosque for leadership." It turns out Mubarak was right. The only thing standing between Egypt and the rise of fundamentalist Islam was Mubarak.
      The Muslim Brotherhood and its more radical cousins are, generally speaking, anti-Western, anti-Semitic, hostile to Christians in their midst, and have a view of women that most Westerners find abhorrent. (Bloomberg)
• The Rise and Fall of the Iranian Revolutionary Model - Raz Zimmt
  The internal developments in Iran and the upheavals in the Arab world pose significant challenges for the Iranian regime. The erosion in the status of the clerics, the growing resistance to the concept of rule by the Supreme Leader, and the increasing difficulty to present the Islamic revolution as a successful model to be imitated by Muslim societies cast doubts on the future of the regime.
      In the short term, the Iranian leadership may be able to eliminate any threat to the stability of the regime and take advantage of new opportunities to advance its influence in the Arab world. However, the increasing power of alternative ideological views at home, coupled with the emergence of competing Islamic government models in the Arab world, may make it even more difficult for Iran to realize its long-term objectives. The author is a researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center)
• Minding the Gaps: Territorial Issues in Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking - Michael Herzog
  Since 2000, Israel has essentially agreed to regard the 1967 lines as a reference point - even if not a "baseline" - for territorial deliberations without prejudice to its call for significant adjustments to these lines. The Palestinians have come to accept Israeli retention of some settlement blocs. And both sides have agreed to bridge gaps through territorial exchange. But the basic narratives guiding their territorial viewpoints are still deeply at odds.
      Efforts to relaunch direct talks have focused almost exclusively on how to get the parties to the table, sidestepping the question of how to proceed if and when they get there. Instead, talks should be preceded by serious preparatory work on territories and borders. Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog (ret.) was personally involved in all of Israel's negotiations with the Palestinians from 1993 to 2010. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Are Egypt's Islamic Parties Planning to Nullify the Peace Treaty with Israel? - Jonathan D. Halevi (Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)

• The prevailing optimism in media reports concerning the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist party's readiness to adhere to the peace treaty with Israel is based on general statements made by senior officials in both parties. These statements maintain that Egypt must honor the international treaties that it signed.
• Yet a more rigorous examination of the two parties' stances identifies a markedly different tendency. Both seek a way to cast off the Camp David agreement in a manner that will incur minimal diplomatic and economic damage to Egypt, and restore Egypt to its leading role in the circle of states confronting Israel.
• The Muslim Brotherhood has set a number of criteria for examining international agreements, including the Camp David agreement: the considerations of Islamic canon law (Sharia), the position of the Egyptian people, and the degree of Israel's compliance with the agreement from Egypt's perspective.
• The strategic objective of the Egyptian Islamic movements is to transform Egypt into a prime regional force that will lead the diplomatic and military battle against Israel. This means re-examining the Camp David agreement and submitting it to the decision of the new parliament that will be controlled by the Islamic parties or to a referendum - thereby alleviating the responsibility of any future Egyptian government for canceling the peace treaty.
• These developments can be averted if the U.S. and its allies take a firm position against any initiative to undermine the Treaty of Peace between Israel and Egypt, and all echelons of the Egyptian establishment are made to understand the implications of any such action.
  
  Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is a former advisor to the Policy Planning Division of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.