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Prepared for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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To contact the Presidents Conference: click here In-Depth Issues:
Egypt Warns Hamas Against Provocations on Gaza Border (DPA/Ha'aretz)
Dimona Suicide Bomber Had a Coffee First - Laurie Copans (AP)
Cairo Exploring Ties with Tehran - Nicholas Kralev and Abraham Rabinovich (Washington Times)
French Envoy Condemns Iran Statements on Israel (AP)
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Admiral Michael McConnell, director of national intelligence, told the Senate intelligence committee Tuesday that the November national intelligence estimate had concluded that Tehran had ceased only efforts to covertly enrich uranium and design nuclear warheads. "The only thing that they've halted was nuclear weapons design, which is probably the least significant part of the program," he said. McConnell said Iran continued to develop uranium enrichment technology and longer-range ballistic missiles. (Financial Times-UK) See also U.S.: Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for Bomb in 2009, But More Likely After 2010 - Pete Williams McConnell said the U.S. intelligence community assesses "with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons." The earliest Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that's very unlikely, he said. More likely that date would be sometime between 2010 and 2015, he added. (NBC News) See also Israel: Iran Will Have Nuclear Weapon in Three Years Israel's Mossad spy agency estimates Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within three years and continue to provide rockets to regional armed groups, agency director Meir Dagan told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday. Dagan's estimate of Iran's nuclear ambitions differs sharply from an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that said Iran had mothballed its nuclear weapons program in 2003. (AFP) Al-Qaeda is gaining in strength from its refuge in Pakistan and is steadily improving its ability to recruit, train and position operatives capable of carrying out attacks inside the U.S., the director of national intelligence, told a Senate panel on Tuesday. Mike McConnell said that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, remained in control of the terrorist group and had promoted a new generation of lieutenants. He said al-Qaeda was improving "the last key aspect of its ability to attack the U.S." - producing militants, including new Western recruits, capable of blending into American society and attacking domestic targets. (New York Times) See also UK Institute: Terror Threat Widens Senior researchers at Britain's International Institute for Strategic Studies warned Tuesday that "neo-Taliban" groups operating in Pakistan's tribal areas may soon become a global menace. Nigel Inkster, who directs a risk analysis unit at the London-based security think tank, said, "There is some evidence they were involved with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and that they have dispatched terrorists to the United Kingdom and Spain." International terrorism remains a "growth industry," he added. (AP/Washington Post) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Hamas on Tuesday claimed responsibility for Monday's suicide bombing in Dimona, saying it was carried out by two operatives from Hebron - Mohammed al-Hirbawi and Shadi al-Zaghair. (Ha'aretz) See also Where Are the Gaza Terrorists Sent to Infiltrate Israel? - Ali Waked Despite Hamas' announcement that the terrorists came from Hebron, consolers continued to flock to the mourning tents set up for the two Palestinians from Gaza whose names were reported on Monday and whose will was broadcast on a videotape. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestinian and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Fatah's military wing, continued to insist Tuesday that they were behind the attack. Meanwhile, sources in Gaza wondered what happened to the two Palestinians presented as the bombers on Monday. (Ynet News) So many terrorists crossed from Gaza into Sinai that their masters don't even know who is out there and where. If Hamas' claim that the bombing came out of Hebron is correct, this is another proof that Hamas is alive and kicking in the West Bank as well, and we must not wait for the PA to handle security problems. Monday's terror attack is also a reminder that the security fence south of Hebron has not been completed. (Ynet News) See also Israel Weighs Security Fence Priorities - Yonat Atlas Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter said in Dimona on Tuesday: "At the end of the day, there will be a fence, but we must first decide if we should plug the holes (in the West Bank separation fence) in the Hebron area - or if we finish it in the Jerusalem area - or if we build a fence on the border with Egypt." (Ynet News) Palestinians in Gaza on Tuesday evening fired eight Kassam rockets at the Israeli town of Sderot, one of which struck a home and wounded six people. The barrage also knocked out the power in one of the city's neighborhoods. Palestinians also fired three longer-range rockets at Ashkelon. Militants belonging to Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement and to the Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility. Also on Tuesday, Palestinians opened fire on farmers working in the fields of Kibbutz Nir Oz. Some farm equipment was damaged. (Ha'aretz) See also Sderot Girl Describes Palestinian Rocket Attack - Shmulik Hadad Hanny Moreno, 14, who was injured by shrapnel, said she was in the house with her grandmother and mother when the rocket hit it. "We heard the Red Alert system. We ran to where my grandmother said was the most protected place, as there is no protection in the house. When the alert ended we came out and then there was an explosion. I flew against the wall and felt the roof collapsing over me. If I was a few meters away from the place where I was standing, I would have sustained more serious wounds. I thank God I was saved. Half a year ago, as I was making my way to this house, a Kassam rocket landed right next to me. A miracle saved me then too, because I managed to run and find shelter in time," she recounted. MK Effie Eitam was on the outskirts of Sderot when the rockets began pouring in. He told Ynet: "A Kassam rocket fell on the road about 30 meters from me. That's not a good feeling." (Ynet News) Seven Palestinians were killed Tuesday in an IDF airstrike on a Hamas police post in Khan Yunis in Gaza. IDF sources said the army's freedom of action was recently expanded. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
On Monday, Palestinian rocket crew commander Amer Qarmout was killed in an airstrike and two of his comrades were wounded. As Israel escalates its aerial campaign against militants in Gaza, it is employing hi-tech tactics designed to reduce the damage and the number of bystanders hurt. "There is a trend in terms of the very dramatic improvement in hitting the terrorists and not non-combatants," a senior air force commander said. The air force says its strikes now cause around one civilian casualty for every 20 militants killed or wounded, compared to a roughly 1-to-1 ratio when the practice was introduced in 2002. The strikes are generally at night and employ ordnance of such low explosive power that cars that are hit often remain largely intact. "The impact is only on the target," he said, but sometimes munitions in militants' vehicles go off unexpectedly, causing "secondary" casualties. "I think the intel (on Gaza) is getting better and better," he said. The most valuable information is in real time - images of the ground fed to the Israeli war room by surveillance drones. (Reuters) When Hamas militants blew up that wall on Jan. 23 to end the Israeli blockade of Gaza, did you notice whose wall it was they destroyed? It was Egypt's wall. Funny, then, that the term "Israeli blockade" should have become so widely and so conventionally accepted with regard to Gaza. To blockade means to impede passage on all sides. It turns out that there is a back door to Gaza, which shares a seven-mile border with Egypt. In two-and-a-half years, Palestinians in Gaza have fired more than 4,000 rockets at Israeli civilian targets. Daily life in the southern Israeli city of Sderot consists of wailing sirens and 15-second dashes for cover. No nation in the world would withstand this daily barrage on its citizens and not take decisive action. No nation would sit passively as an enemy committed to its destruction grows menacingly on its border. Hamas is the Palestinian franchise of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Egyptian wellspring of the modern Islamist movement and the chief political opposition to the Mubarak dynasty. (San Antonio Express-News) Observations: An Israeli Signal to Hamas - Ron Ben-Yishai (Ynet News)
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