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Israel's Grand Strategy

[Jerusalem Post] Barry Rubin - Israel is facing threats on four fronts. To the north is Hizbullah, a radical Islamist group which will never accept Israel's existence. Hizbullah's top priority is securing the bulk of power within Lebanon and doing well in next May's election. Fighting Israel right now is a distraction from that goal. With Hizbullah part of the Lebanese government, Israel has warned that any aggression will result in all of Lebanon being a target. Israel's deterrence on this front should not be underestimated, and it is likely to remain relatively quiet for a while. To the northeast is Syria, with whom the Israeli government is currently negotiating. Virtually no one in the leadership expects an agreement. The attack on Syria's nuclear installation signaled Damascus that Israel can hit it hard if necessary. Regarding the PA, Israel wants to see Fatah remain in power: Hamas would be worse, and the PA does do a bit to block terrorism. Here, there is little illusion about possible peace and no better real alternative than maintaining the status quo. The Hamas front in Gaza is the most potentially volatile. Hamas frequently violates the cease-fire, but at a low level. Virtually nobody thinks Hamas will make peace or even a long-term, reliable cease-fire. Yet again, the status quo is about the best that can be accomplished. There is no solution; the enemy is not going away, nor will it moderate. The world wants to hear that Israel is seeking peace and doing everything possible, and it will. Yet while attacks can be deterred, reduced in number and made less effective, actual peace is beyond reach. The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal.
2008-08-19 08:00:00
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