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Is Iran Seeking a Historic Compromise with the United States?


(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael Segall - On May 8, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted to mark the birthday of Imam Hassan (the Second Imam): "I believe that Imam Hassan was the greatest hero in the history of Islam....He was prepared to sacrifice himself, along with his good name among his comrades, to further his goals, and he agreed to peace for the sake of the future of Islam." In 2013, in the midst of the negotiations on the nuclear deal, Khamenei coined the term "heroic flexibility," which also appears in the book he later wrote under the title, The Peace of Imam Hassan: The Most Wonderful Heroic Flexibility in History. Khamenei's allusion to Imam Hassan's "heroic flexibility" was seen as a green light to promote the nuclear deal, which was eventually signed in 2015. Some claimed that Khamenei's tweet signaled that Iran, which is in very poor economic straits amid the sanctions and the coronavirus crisis, is (again) seeking a compromise with the United States, possibly on the nuclear issue. The coronavirus crisis has greatly exacerbated Iran's economic distress because of the dramatic decline in oil prices and the United Arab Emirates' closing of its ports to Iran to prevent the spread of the virus. Iran had been using some of those ports to circumvent the sanctions. Despite its difficult situation at home and abroad, Iran continues to adhere to the key objectives of its strategy: to advance the nuclear program and to expand its regional influence through subversion in the Persian Gulf, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. Even if he allows a period of calm between Iran and the United States, Khamenei will not want to be remembered as someone who gave in to America, and he will keep adhering to Iran's basic objectives. The writer, an expert on strategic issues with a focus on Iran, is a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center.
2020-05-13 00:00:00
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