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Decision-Making in the Islamic Republic of Iran

(Foreign Affairs) Afshon Ostovar and Ariane M. Tabatabai - To see Tehran as riven with antagonistic factions is misguided. Western policymakers must accept the reality that Iran conducts its security policy as a unified state actor. There is little doubt that the Rouhani administration was fully aware of the Aramco attacks before they took place. The sophistication of the attack suggests that the IRGC was in charge of the operation, and it would not have acted without the unequivocal endorsement of the supreme leader. The regime now enjoys a new internal unity in the face of the U.S. maximum pressure campaign. The more appealing narrative may be to see two camps within Iran struggling over the future of its relations with the U.S., and that Washington need only find ways to bolster the position of the moderates. However, in matters pertaining to national security, the regime acts in unison. To try to empower moderates is naive. Washington should strive to deal with Iran as it is, not as Washington wishes it were. Afshon Ostovar is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an Assistant Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. Ariane M. Tabatabai is an Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and an Adjunct Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University.
2019-10-22 00:00:00
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