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No Arab Demographic Time Bomb

(Jewish Political Studies Review) Amb. Yoram Ettinger - Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Jewish state is not facing an Arab demographic time bomb. It benefits from a robust Jewish demographic tailwind of births and net immigration. From 1995 to 2017 the number of Israeli Jewish births surged by 74%, from 80,400 to 140,000, while the number of Israeli Arab births grew by 19%, from 36,000 to 43,000. Moreover, the trend of Israeli emigration has slowed down. In 1898 Simon Dubnov, a leading Jewish historian and demographer, projected 500,000 Jews in the Land of Israel by 1998, defining Theodor Herzl's Zionist vision as "messianic wishful thinking." In 1944 the founder of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, Prof. Roberto Bachi, projected 2.3 million Jews in Israel in 2001. In 2018 there are seven million Jews in Israel. In 2000, the CBS projected a decline in the Jewish fertility rate from 2.6 births per woman to 2.4 in 2025. However, by 2017 the Jewish fertility rate had risen to 3.16, and 76.5% of all Israeli births were Jewish, compared to 69% in 1995. The rise of Jewish fertility reflects enhanced optimism, patriotism, attachment to roots, and communal responsibility among Israel's secular population. In 2018 there are 1.85 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) - and not 3 million as claimed by the Palestinians, 1.6 million Israeli Muslim Arabs, 130,000 Israeli Druze, 130,000 Israeli Christian Arabs, and seven million Jews - a 65.5% Jewish majority in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel, Judea, and Samaria. The writer is a member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group.
2018-12-14 00:00:00
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