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Examining Iranian Non-Compliance with the Nuclear Deal

(Institute for Science and International Security) David Albright - The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) needs to be implemented more effectively and its nuclear conditions strengthened and better verified. The deal's implementation under the Obama administration was too permissive and tolerant of Iran's violations of the deal, its exploitation of loopholes, and its avoidance of critical verification requirements. The result was that Iran was able to push the envelope of allowed behavior in directions harmful to U.S. national security. At its core, the Iran deal is a bet that by the time the nuclear limitations end, Iran, the region, or both will have changed so much that Iran will no longer seek nuclear weapons. But despite immense sanctions relief, Iran has been increasing its conventional military power and efforts at establishing regional hegemony, including interfering in the affairs of and threatening its neighbors. The bet does not appear to be winnable under the current circumstances, and Iran's current trajectory is a threat to the U.S. and its allies in the region. Armed with substantial funds and a growing economy, Iran is challenging the U.S. in the region and appears as committed to maintaining the capability to pursue a nuclear weapons path as before, just a longer path. A solution needs to be thought through, and a remediation path developed that will strengthen and fix the deal. Based on available information, certain patterns of Iranian non-compliance are clear. Iran often conducts small-scale cheating on the JCPOA's nuclear limitations. It misinterprets clauses to justify actions that should more properly be viewed as violations. Some have tried to state that the IAEA has judged Iran in compliance with the JCPOA. However, making this determination is not the responsibility of the IAEA. Moreover, the IAEA regularly states that it is still unable to determine the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and thus unable to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear program is truly peaceful. The writer is founder and president of ISIS. This is from his testimony before the House Subcommittee on National Security, April 5, 2017.
2017-04-26 00:00:00
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