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Iran: Improving Our Capabilities for What Comes Next

(Ha'aretz) Brig. Gen. (res.) Assaf Orion - The early years of the nuclear agreement with Iran are good ones, in which Iran reduces its stockpile of enriched uranium and enrichment equipment, and slows its industrial production of these components in a manner far more effective than any other means of achieving these goals. But in the following years, Iran will be able to legitimately build large-scale nuclear capabilities that would enable it to realize a military nuclear option within a relatively short time of deciding to do so. Thus, over the long term, the achievements of the "good years" appear in a less positive light. The value of the nuclear agreement and its long-term significance will depend primarily on how the "good years" are used to prepare for the following years. Israel should seek to build an international intelligence-alert system against regional nuclearization; to build up its capabilities for both covert and military action that might be needed in the future; to prepare for scenarios of either continuity (observance of the agreement) or disruption (its violation or collapse); to shore up its strategic relationships and mutual understandings with its most important ally as well as with its regional partners; and to create more convenient diplomatic and security conditions. The writer, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, served as head of Strategic Planning in the Planning Directorate in the IDF General Staff (2010-2015).
2016-08-19 00:00:00
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