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Iran's Ballistic Missile Program

(International Institute for Strategic Studies-UK) Michael Elleman - Iran's missiles can already hit any part of the Middle East, including Israel. However, Iran's ballistic missiles have poor accuracy. Against large military targets, such as an airfield or seaport, Iran could conduct harassment attacks aimed at disrupting operations or damaging fuel-storage depots. However, the missiles would probably be unable to shut down critical military activities. Missile defenses would further degrade the military utility of Iran's missiles. Without a nuclear warhead, Iran's ballistic missiles might trigger fear, but the casualties would probably be low, even if Iran unleashed its entire ballistic missile arsenal and a majority succeeded in penetrating missile defenses. Substantial improvements in missile accuracy will take years, if not a decade, to materialize. Ballistic missiles no doubt would be the preferred delivery platform should Iran ever acquire an atomic weapon. The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) offers a broadly accepted classification of a "nuclear-capable missile" as one capable of delivering a 500 kg. payload to 300 km. Under this definition, Iran possesses more than 300 nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Flight tests are an essential element of any missile program. Iran did not conduct a nuclear-capable missile launch in 2005, 2013 or 2014, when serious nuclear negotiations were underway. From 2006 to 2012, when talks were going nowhere, Iran averaged roughly five test launches per year. Three flight tests were performed in 2015, and five have occurred so far in 2016. The writer, a former missile scientist at Lockheed Martin's R&D laboratory and the author of a 2010 IISS study on Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities, testified on May 24, 2016, before a U.S. Senate committee investigating the effects of the Iran nuclear deal.
2016-05-27 00:00:00
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