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Is It Iran's Middle East Now?

(Fathom-BICOM) Jonathan Spyer - Perhaps the single best organized and most aggressive alliance active currently in the Middle East is the bloc of states and movements gathered around the Islamic Republic of Iran. As a result of sanctions relief after the nuclear agreement, Iran is well placed to continue supporting proxy political-military organizations in a variety of regional locations in pursuit of Iranian strategic goals. Iran's strategic goal is to emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East and, eventually, the entire Islamic world. It seeks to roll back U.S. influence in the region and to work towards Israel's destruction. Yet in every case of Iranian regional "outreach," the result is not Iranian strategic victory, but rather Iranian prevention of the defeat and eclipse of the local Iranian ally. The export of chaos has the merit, perhaps, of keeping disorder far from Iran's own borders by ensuring that rivals to Tehran are kept busy engaged in proxy conflicts elsewhere. However, it is difficult to see how it can result in regional hegemony and leadership. Iran is a spoiler par excellence, but it does not look like the founder of a new Middle Eastern order. Dr. Jonathan Spyer is Director of the Rubin Center (formerly the GLORIA Center), IDC Herzliya, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
2016-01-19 00:00:00
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