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Living With the Iran Nuclear Deal

(Project Syndicate) Richard N. Haass - No one should confuse the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," signed on July 14 by Iran, with a solution to the problem of Iran's nuclear ambitions or its contributions to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. On the contrary, depending on how it is implemented and enforced, the agreement could make matters worse. The agreement permits Iran to keep far more nuclear-related capacity than it would need if it were interested only in civil research. The agreement also provides Iran with extensive relief from economic sanctions, which will fuel the regime's ability to support dangerous proxies throughout the Middle East. Moreover, the accord does not rule out all nuclear-related research and does not constrain work on missiles. There is also the danger that Iran will fail to comply with parts of the agreement and undertake prohibited work. Iran should be informed that the U.S. would undertake a preventive military strike if it appeared to be attempting to present the world with a fait accompli and put itself in a position to field nuclear weapons after 15 years. The world erred in allowing North Korea to pass the nuclear-weapons threshold; it should not make the same mistake again. The notion that the nuclear agreement will lead Iran to moderate its radicalism and rein in its strategic ambitions should not be anyone's baseline scenario. In fact, the emergence of an ever more capable Iran, not a transformed one, is likely to be one of the main challenges confronting the Middle East, if not the world, in the coming years. The writer, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the U.S. State Department (2001-2003).
2015-07-17 00:00:00
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