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Don't Expect Iran to Fight for Assad

(Al Monitor) Meir Javedanfar - In case of a military attack by the U.S. against Syria, there is little chance that Iran will become directly involved. This is despite Iran stating that it would consider such an attack as crossing its "red line." It's also quite unlikely that a U.S.-Syria conflict would lead to Iran permanently breaking off nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. Here again, the reason is related to Iran's own pressing priorities. Should Iran walk away from talks, that would give those in the West who want to ratchet up sanctions even more justification to do so. Ayatollah Khamenei can live without Assad in power, but he can't live without a functioning economy. With his forces likely to become battered from air attacks, Assad will need more money and weapons than before, both of which are likely to put increasing pressure on Iran's own dwindling resources. The writer teaches contemporary Iranian politics at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
2013-08-30 00:00:00
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