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If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Military Option Against Iran

(Strategic Assessment-INSS-Tel Aviv University) Amos Yadlin, Emily B. Landau, and Avner Golov - A study published in 2012 by the Iran Project, signed by thirty former U.S. government officials including the current Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, seeks to create the basis for an informed discussion regarding the option of a military strike against Iran. The report presents a biased analysis of the costs of attacking Iran - the result of a mistaken choice of model for an attack on Iran's military nuclear facilities and an overestimate of the cost to the U.S. The U.S. air force has sufficient capabilities to carry out a surgical strike, over several days, on Iranian nuclear facilities that could set back the Iranian nuclear program by several years. The option of a surgical aerial strike makes it possible to carry out an additional attack several years later if Iran seeks to rehabilitate its military nuclear capabilities. A surgical strike that does not harm widespread Iranian military and economic assets could encourage a positive Iranian response to negotiations, and the fact that many assets remain in Iran's possession that stand to be harmed in the event of escalation could moderate Iran's response. Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin is Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Dr. Emily B. Landau is a senior research fellow at INSS. Avner Golov is a research assistant to the Director of INSS.
2013-06-03 00:00:00
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