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Will Assad Retreat to an Alawite Coastal Stronghold?

(Institute for the Study of War) Elizabeth O'Bagy - Many analysts have argued that the Syrian regime has been setting the stage for a retreat to Syria's coastal mountains, the traditional homeland of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawi sect, and that sooner or later Assad will abandon Damascus for the coast. This narrative followed reports that regime forces were conducting repeated clearance operations in coastal Sunni enclaves. However, a retreat to an Alawi stronghold would represent failure for the regime, and Assad has made it clear that he will live or die in Damascus. In addition, conditions on the ground contradict assertions that Assad is creating an Alawi rump state. Thousands of Syrians, regardless of sect, have fled the violence in their communities and sought refuge on the coast. This geographic displacement has shifted demographics in the area considerably. Tartous, which was 90% Alawi at the start of the uprising, is only 60% Alawi following the intense fighting in Aleppo and Idlib provinces in 2012. The International Strategic Research Organization reports that Sunnis comprise 50% of the population in Latakia, and around 70% in Latakia's outskirts. Anti-Assad stirrings have occurred among the Alawi community, particularly in Qardaha, the hometown of the Assad family, where an open rift has developed among the Alawi elite. Clashes first broke out in the fall of 2012 when a number of prominent Alawi families participated in anti-regime street protests, ultimately leading to an exchange of gunfire in which many Alawites were killed. Many Alawites in the area resent the policies of Assad and his militias, or shabiha, who have tormented the coastal region.
2013-05-20 00:00:00
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