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Understanding Iran's Negotiating Strategy

(Weekly Standard) Michael Makovsky and Blaise Misztal - Recent Iranian tactics suggest a simultaneous slowing down and speeding up of their nuclear program. By buying time now, Iran is shrewdly seeking to evade international pressure while hastening its advance to nuclear weapons capability. Iran has drawn from its stockpile of 20%-enriched uranium to produce fuel plates for use in a reactor, thereby delaying the expected date for crossing the threshold of nuclear weapons capability. Yet Tehran has begun installing next generation centrifuges at its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant in order to speed up its nuclear work. In fact, Iran has not slowed its program all that much, and the installation of advanced centrifuges will hasten Iran's breakout window. Thus, Iran might be delaying the day when it is ready to make the dash to a nuclear weapon, but is ensuring that the dash will be as short as possible. By the time Iran has sufficient 20%-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, it might also have the capability to produce highly-enriched uranium in days. In response, the U.S. should make abundantly clear, in both word and deed, that it remains committed to using all means of power to prevent a nuclear Iran. Michael Makovsky, a Pentagon official during the George W. Bush administration, directs the Bipartisan Policy Center's Foreign Policy Project, including its Iran Initiative. Blaise Misztal is associate director of BPC's Foreign Policy Project.
2013-02-26 00:00:00
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