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Time for Obama to Clarify U.S. Policy on Iran

(Ha'aretz) Emily B. Landau and Shimon Stein - We are at a very late stage in the game, after repeated and unsuccessful attempts to deal with Iran through diplomacy; time is about to run out. Either Iran finally accepts a deal now, or it leaves the other side no choice but to pronounce negotiations to have failed. Iran has no interest (as of yet) in a negotiated deal which would mean giving up on its goal of nuclear weapons, which it can achieve on its own. Further pressure is the only thing that might make Iranian leaders finally alter their calculation, and come to the table genuinely looking for a deal. Thus, reduction of the pressure of sanctions - before a final deal is reached - would be the best way to ensure failure, not success. The direction of international efforts for 2013 critically depends on U.S. determination and strategy, and whether Obama even wants 2013 to be the year of decision. Either we will see a continuation of past failed attempts to negotiate, with increasing Iranian demands to adopt an ever more lenient approach, international actors inching away from the demands they put to Iran in April 2012, and Iran continuing to advance its program. Or we will see a determined U.S. leadership that continues on the path begun in 2012, significantly increasing the pressure on Iran until it comes to the table serious about making a deal. At some point, the administration must also determine the criteria for pronouncing the failure of negotiations and to consider seriously a move to military force. Dr. Emily Landau is director of the arms control program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. Amb. Shimon Stein is a senior fellow at INSS.
2013-01-21 00:00:00
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