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Processing Delay: The Arab-Israeli Peace Process Has Never Been More Irrelevant

(Foreign Policy) Elliott Abrams - The "Arab Spring" is producing Muslim Brotherhood victories, Salafi gains, chaos in Syria, disorder in Egypt, and tremors in Jordan. Iran's nuclear program moves steadily forward despite tougher sanctions and ongoing negotiations. Since 1967 the future of Jerusalem and the West Bank remains a matter of intense international - including American - diplomatic effort. While professional peacemakers may want to get negotiations going again, the inconvenient truth is that none of the parties to this conflict have adequate incentives to take serious political risks right now. An Israel that is worried about stability in Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon and facing a growing Iranian nuclear weapons program is unlikely to take many risks in the West Bank. Polls show that Israelis do want peace and do want separation from the Palestinians, but have little faith that much can be achieved. If the Palestinian president could not agree to the startlingly generous offer Olmert made in late 2008, nothing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can offer will elicit a yes. The writer is senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and was a deputy national security advisor in U.S. President George W. Bush's administration.
2012-06-11 00:00:00
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