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Iran on the Threshold

(Strategic Assessment-Institute for National Security Studies) Amos Yadlin and Yoel Guzansky - Iran's nuclear efforts would be far less threatening and would arouse less suspicion and opposition if the Iranian regime did not have a reputation for deceit and concealment of nuclear activity, for issuing detailed threats to the country's neighbors, for intervening in the internal affairs of states in the region, and for financing and assisting terrorist organizations. Israel is not convinced that the United States is capable of identifying an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons, and in any case it is not prepared to take the risk of such a breakout. For Israel, the red line is much nearer than the United States acknowledges. The most difficult problem from Israel's point of view is the need to rely on intelligence systems to provide adequate warning of the assembly of nuclear weapons. Israel feels that reliance on such an intelligence warning is not a reasonable gamble. A "good deal" will include significant restrictions on continued uranium enrichment in Iran, the removal of most of the enriched uranium from the country, the closure of the facility in Fordow, an Iranian response to the open questions from the IAEA, and Iranian agreement to close inspection (including implementation of the IAEA's Additional Protocol). However, there is very little likelihood that Iran will accept the terms of such an agreement. The talks with Iran will limit Israel's ability to present a credible threat to use force, which is an essential element in the attempt to change Iranian policy. A prolonged round of talks with Iran is likely to aggravate the trend toward international acceptance of a situation in which Iran is slowly becoming a nuclear state. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin is the Director of INSS. Yoel Guzansky is a research associate at INSS.
2012-05-18 00:00:00
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