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Iran's Roar Shows Widening Sway of Military

(AP) Brian Murphy - Iran looks like a country preparing for war. It appears to be part of the kind of seesaw brinksmanship that has become an Iranian hallmark: Pushing to the edge with the West and then retreating after weighing the reactions. "Sanctions seem to be taking a major bite," said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. "Iran's military is stepping up as the outside threats increase." Iran has rolled out its troops and arsenals in an unprecedented display of military readiness. Iran naval forces are significantly outgunned by Western flotillas, including the U.S. 5th Fleet based in Bahrain that can draw on aircraft carriers and other warships in the Indian Ocean and taking part in anti-piracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. Britain is also deploying one of its biggest destroyers, HMS Daring, to the Gulf. "Iran knows it cannot realistically close off the strait [of Hormuz]," said Paul Rogers, who follows international defense affairs at Bradford University in Britain. Iran also knows that blocking oil flow in the Gulf would bring serious self-inflicted wounds. Iran counts on oil for about 80% of its foreign currency earnings. As Iranian affairs analyst Afshin Molavi quipped: Closing the strait for Iran would be "akin to a man purposely blocking a coronary artery." "In this climate of feeling under siege, the Revolutionary Guard has found fertile ground to take control of policies and strategies," said Theodore Karasik, a security expert at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "How Iran deals with the sanctions and the West is now all dictated, in one way or another, by the military."
2012-01-11 00:00:00
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