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The End of Deterrence

[Weekly Standard] S. Enders Wimbush - Iran is fast building its position as the Middle East's political and military hegemon, a position that will be largely unchallengeable once it acquires nuclear weapons. The opportunities nuclear weapons will afford Iran far exceed the prospect of using them to win a military conflict. Nuclear weapons will empower strategies of coercion, intimidation, and denial that go far beyond purely military considerations. Acquiring the bomb as an icon of state power will enhance the legitimacy of Iran's mullahs and make it harder for disgruntled Iranians to oust them. Iran's leadership has spoken of its willingness - in their words - to "martyr" the entire Iranian nation as a way to accelerate an inevitable, apocalyptic collision between Islam and the West that will result in Islam's final worldwide triumph. What constitutes deterrence in this world? Many European strategists speak of "managing" a nuclear Iran. This is a lethal naivete. We have no idea how to deter ideological actors. We do not know what they hold dear enough to be deterred by the threat of its destruction. We should be under no illusion that talk alone - "engagement" - is a solution. The writer is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of its Center for Future Security Strategies.
2007-01-16 01:00:00
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