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Coping with Iran's Nuclear Capabilities

(Strategic Assessment-Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Ephraim Asculai - Iran has the capability to enrich uranium to any degree it wishes. Taking all the available information into account, it appears that Iran currently has the potential to produce some four cores for nuclear explosive devices. This estimate does not take into account the possibility of the production of fissile materials in any concealed or undeclared facilities, or materials obtained from external sources. There are strong indications, including in the IAEA reports, that Iran has been working on the explosive mechanism and on the delivery systems. These two steps take much less time to complete in comparison with the much more complicated enrichment stage. It thus seems that all that is needed for Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is a political decision to do so. The common wisdom is that it would take several months to produce the first weapon and a shorter period to produce each subsequent one. Therefore, given what is known as of mid-2011, Iran can have 1-2 operational nuclear weapons within a year or so from the moment its leadership decides to make them. Coupled with its tested delivery systems, these weapons could reach all West Asian countries, southern Russia, and southeastern Europe. The future is here. Israel should not rely on international responses to a de facto nuclear Iran. The world has reacted to but not countered Iran's developing nuclear project. The writer is a senior research associate at INSS.
2011-11-07 00:00:00
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