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American Intelligence

[Wall Street Journal] Claude Moniquet - No fewer than 16 U.S. intelligence agencies have just told us that the Iranian nuclear program really is not so dangerous. Before rolling out the peace banners, though, it's worth looking at the agencies' track record in getting these sorts of "estimates" right. As a matter of fact, U.S. intelligence services have so far failed to predict the nuclearization of a single foreign nation. But on the possible nuclearization of a regime that sounds fanatic enough to use this doomsday weapon, the NIE is suddenly to be trusted? The NIE has little in common with intelligence as it is understood by professionals. Through this sleight of hand, the intelligence services effectively sabotaged the Bush administration's efforts to steer its allies toward a tougher position on Iran. Paris in particular won't be amused about what appears almost like a betrayal. President Nicolas Sarkozy took a great political risk when he turned around French foreign policy and became Europe's leading opponent of a nuclear Iran. The report also betrays a rather naive view of the nature of the Iranian regime. Are the mullahs' intentions really so hard to discern? The writer, a former field operative for the French foreign intelligence service, heads the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center.
2007-12-13 01:00:00
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