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Israel's Strategic Concerns over Upheaval in Egypt

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Brig. Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - Historically a regional heavyweight, Egypt wields the strongest Arab military force and shares a 150-mile border with Israel. It has also been the leader of the moderate Arab camp and an important ally of the U.S. Accordingly, Israelis have regarded Egypt as the lynchpin of Arab war or peace with Israel. Notwithstanding the cold nature of the three-decade peace and conflicting policies on some issues (e.g., the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the peace process), the two countries developed close coordination over the years in order to counter radical Islamism and terrorism in their various expressions: Hamas, Hizbullah, al-Qaeda, and other groups. Hosni Mubarak's Egypt also supported the international drive to counter Iran and its proxies. Egyptian-Israeli relations intensified when Hamas commandeered Gaza in June 2007. The specter of an Islamist entity next door projecting radicalism into Egypt haunted the Mubarak government. As a result, Cairo also gave quiet consent when Israel launched an operation against Hamas in December 2008 in a bid to quell ongoing rocket fire from Gaza. Israel has always believed that a democratic Middle East would be more stable and peaceful. What worries Israelis is the transition period to democracy, given the risk of radical Islamist forces exploiting the turmoil to hijack the domestic political process away from democracy and peace. Moreover, the longstanding bilateral peace is between governments, not people, since wide anti-Israeli sentiment among Egyptians was fostered by Mubarak's regime. One common conclusion is that peace agreements should encompass peoples, not just governments, and be fortified by solid security arrangements. Agreements alone do not guarantee stability. The writer is an Israel-based international fellow of The Washington Institute.
2011-02-25 00:00:00
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