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The Dilemmas of Being an Iranian Bullet

[Daily Star-Lebanon] Michael Young - Hizballah's efficient ward heelers are handing out cash, reportedly much of it Iranian, to persuade the party's Shiite supporters that the destruction of their homes and livelihood was worth it. However, when will Hizballah truly decide whether it is Iranian or Lebanese? Iran had wagered on Hizballah's missiles being a deterrent in the event of a conflict with the U.S. and Israel. That effect has been mostly lost thanks to the month-long Lebanon war. Hizballah still has many rockets, and its infrastructure in the south is probably intact. But what it no longer has is a blank check from the Shiite population to pursue a new war of "honor" that will surely put most of them back in the streets again. Aside from Hizballah's spent deterrence capability (only revivable at a high price) is the element of surprise when it comes to the party's training, tactics, and defenses. In the next war, the Israelis will come better prepared. If you were a Revolutionary Guards chief in Tehran, how would you view the latest conflict with Israel? The Lebanon war was useless to Iran, only making their nuclear program more vulnerable. In addition, President Ahmadinejad will have to explain to his own poor electors why billions of dollars are being spent on building Shiite homes in Lebanon, while Iranians continue to face grinding poverty. What can Nasrallah do if Iran asks Hizballah to resume military operations against Israel while Shiites are slowly rebuilding their lives? By refusing, Nasrallah could lose his sponsor and financier; by agreeing, he could lose his supporters.
2006-08-24 01:00:00
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