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Can Ahmadinejad Lose the Election?

[Jerusalem Post] Benedetta Berti - Is Ahmadinejad's reelection in the June 2009 Iranian presidential elections assured? Three years after his decisive victory in June 2005, Ahmadinejad's popularity has been steadily declining both within his own constituency and among his former allies. Inflation has risen from 10.9% in 2005 to 25.3% this summer and the administration's economic mismanagement and massive increase in overhead are partially to blame. Last week, former president and current head of the Assembly of Experts Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani blamed Ahmadinejad's administration for the ongoing economic and energy crises, saying the country was ready for change. Given this decline in popularity, Ahmadinejad's reelection now depends even more on the support of the conservative coalition. Yet growing divisions within the conservative bloc represent a substantial internal challenge for Ahmadinejad. In the spring 2008 parliamentary elections, an ad hoc alliance in opposition to Ahmadinejad's group, which includes Teheran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qaliba and Majlis Speaker (and main nuclear negotiator) Ali Larijani, won 53 out of 117 seats assigned to the conservative bloc. Even if Ahmadinejad could count on Supreme Leader Khamenei's endorsement, it would be hard to know whether such support alone will ensure his reelection, given the rift within the conservative ranks and the depth of the economic crisis. In 1997, Mohammad Khatami won the presidential race and defeated Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri despite Khamenei's support for the latter. The writer is the Earhart Doctoral Fellow in International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.
2008-09-03 01:00:00
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